The latest December non-farm employment data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows a clear slowdown—only about 50,000 new jobs, well below the market’s usual expectation of 60,000 to 70,000+. This is a relatively rare low growth rate post-pandemic, reflecting a significant slowdown in U.S. employment growth by the end of 2025.

Interestingly, the unemployment rate has actually decreased, indicating that the overall employment structure remains resilient. Although the number of new jobs has slowed, the existing employment base remains relatively stable.

From the Federal Reserve’s policy perspective, this data signals a neutral stance, even leaning slightly towards easing. The probability of a sharp rate cut in the short term is low, but if employment remains weak, the flexibility of future monetary policy will significantly increase. For the market, this shift in policy environment could become an important near-term expectation variable.