Large policy expectations often cannot compete with the market's calm judgment. Although the current high-level government signals a strong intention to re-engage the Venezuelan energy sector, major U.S. oil companies have shown considerable caution— their attitude says it all.

The logic behind this is not complicated: on one side is political pressure, and on the other side are real financial risks. These companies are not betting on political will, but are assessing actual investment returns. Sanction risks, geopolitical uncertainties, infrastructure conditions—each variable influences the decision-making balance.

This phenomenon reflects a deeper market characteristic: decision-making at the corporate level is often more cautious than at the policy level. Even with political support in place, business participants still face real costs and risks. For any market relying on policy expectations, this is a lesson about the discrepancy between reality and expectations.