#非农就业数据 Contradictory Non-Farm Signals: Cooling Employment but No Rate Cut in Sight, Will Bitcoin Rise or Fall?

After the government shutdown turmoil, the December US non-farm data finally presents a relatively clear picture, but this report casts a complex shadow over the market—significant cooling in the employment sector, yet the Federal Reserve may become more cautious because of it.
Bitcoin responded quickly after the data release, with prices briefly finding support in the $90,000 to $91,000 range. The report reveals that the US economy is experiencing a "slow cooling" rather than a "rapid deterioration," with new jobs mainly supported by a few service industries, while manufacturing and consumer-related sectors appear weak.
Meanwhile, the market did not receive an immediate rate cut signal from this report, with federal funds rate futures showing a nearly 95% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at the January meeting.
01 Data Truth
December US non-farm employment presents a complex picture.
New jobs increased by only 50,000, below the market expectation of 60,000, hitting a recent low. Data from the previous two months was significantly revised downward, with October's data even revised to a decrease of 173,000 jobs.
Contrasting with weak job growth, the unemployment rate slightly improved, falling from 4.6% in November to 4.4%, slightly below market expectations. However, this "stability" is more due to a synchronized contraction on the labor supply side rather than an improvement in job demand.
Looking at industry distribution, new jobs are mainly concentrated in a few "safety net" service sectors such as dining and hotels, healthcare, and social assistance. Healthcare and social assistance remain the most stable sources of employment throughout the year, while retail employment decreased by 25,000.
Overall, manufacturing, construction, transportation, and warehousing industries show weakness, with employment essentially flat.
02 The Fed's Calculations
This seemingly contradictory data may actually reinforce the Fed's wait-and-see stance. Market pricing for short-term rate cuts has not significantly increased following the December employment data.
Rate futures traders maintain expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady at the January meeting.
US employment performance was not as bad as expected, with the labor market slightly better than the more dovish Fed members' forecasts.
This indicates that the Fed is not in a hurry to cut rates again. The December unemployment rate is slightly below the Fed's forecast of 4.5% for Q4 last year, and with Q4 GDP expected to grow relatively quickly, the Fed is likely to keep rates unchanged for at least the next few months.
03 Macro Logic of the Crypto Market
From a traditional financial perspective, this report is seen by some market participants as reinforcing the narrative of a "soft landing" for the US economy—that growth is slowing but not spiraling out of control.
This "Goldilocks" environment (not too hot, not too cold) theoretically benefits risk assets.
For the cryptocurrency market, the macro transmission path of non-farm data remains clear: weak data → rising rate cut expectations → weakening dollar → support for cryptocurrencies. However, the complexity of the current data mix leads to divergent market interpretations.
The key is the immediate reaction of the dollar index after the data release, which often serves as the most direct indicator of capital flow direction.
04 Bitcoin and Ethereum Battle
Bitcoin currently shows resilience near the $90,000 mark. The market's core focus is entirely on non-farm data, as the data performance will directly influence expectations for the Fed's rate cut pace, triggering market volatility.
From a technical perspective, focus on the support strength at $88,000. If the weekly close remains above $92,000, the bullish trend will be confirmed to continue. On the daily chart, there is effective support near the midline, but the overall weak pattern has not yet fully reversed.
Ethereum's movement is highly synchronized with Bitcoin. After returning above $3,100, the early morning rebound lacked momentum, stalling around $3,140. Technical signals also show mixed bullish and bearish signs, with close attention needed on whether it can stabilize above $3,200 amid macroeconomic tailwinds.
05 The Hidden Flows of Institutional Funds
Despite short-term volatility from data, institutional interest in Bitcoin remains strong. Over $100 billion in assets are held across 14 US spot Bitcoin ETFs, with the iShares Bitcoin Trust under BlackRock leading with $67 billion in assets.
Morgan Stanley is preparing to launch a new ETF supporting Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Some analysts point out that if just 1% of US 401(k) plan funds flow into Bitcoin, the potential incremental capital could reach approximately $87 billion.
More notably, sovereign wealth funds are gradually increasing their positions during Bitcoin price corrections, establishing long-term holdings. This long-term allocation could provide support during market downturns, reducing volatility.
The crypto market's immediate response to macro data has become relatively fixed: weak data often triggers increased rate cut expectations, boosting market sentiment.
Looking at overnight trends, both Bitcoin and Ethereum's key support levels have held, with bulls still holding their ground.
Solana benefits from institutional interest and active on-chain ecosystems, often reacting more sensitively to macroeconomic signals than Ethereum.
As regulatory clarity improves and institutional participation continues to grow, the fundamental support for the crypto market is strengthening. Regardless of short-term data fluctuations, Bitcoin's inherent nature as a "liquidity sponge" makes it attractive under easing expectations.