There is an eternal debate in the market: Is this wave the top or just a shakeout? The optimists say there will be a big move in December, while the pessimists believe the bear market has already arrived.

My thought is, rather than getting caught up in this binary choice, it’s better to consider it from a different perspective.

**Probabilistic Game or Certainty Strategy**

Since no one can be 100% sure of the next move, it means this is a 50/50 gamble—the probability of a bear market is 50%, and the chance of an upward trend is also 50%. Given that the odds are equal, why should we gamble on this?

It might be better to extend our view to a 4-year cycle. Market history shows that long-term holding can often hedge against short-term volatility. So why not set a clear 4-year goal and extend the investment rhythm?

**Layered Approach to Planning**

The strategy is simple—set multiple price anchors and allocate gradually:
- When it drops to $80,000, start building a position
- When it drops to $70,000, increase the position
- When it drops to $60,000, continue adding
- When it drops to $50,000, strengthen the allocation
- When it drops to $40,000, continue to enter
- When it drops to $30,000, add more
- When it drops to $20,000, go heavy
- When it hits $10,000, that’s the ultimate bottom

The beauty of this plan is that it transforms uncertainty into an executable strategy.

**Target Setting: Break the Previous High**

The previous cycle’s high was $126,000. Using 4 years to break this high is no longer a matter of probability—it’s almost 100% certain.

When your goal is big enough, short-term fluctuations become insignificant. You don’t need to watch the charts constantly, nor be swayed by emotions. Just follow the plan step by step. Doesn’t this kind of investment experience feel much more relaxed?