Bitcoin recently surged to 92,500, appearing quite strong. But it may be premature to be overly optimistic now.

This wave of gains is very likely related to the criminal investigation of the Federal Reserve Chair. However, this kind of positive news is more of an emotional boost—don't expect him to resign immediately. Even if a new chair is appointed, it doesn't necessarily mean a wave of rate cuts will follow.

Looking at market signals, Goldman Sachs's latest forecast is worth noting. On January 12, they provided an economic outlook for 2026: the US economy will maintain strong growth, inflation will stay moderate, and at the same time, the Federal Reserve will cut rates twice more, by 25 basis points each in June and September.

Sounds good, but there are actually two underlying contradictions. One is the rift between economic growth and employment; the other is the conflict between inflation and employment. Ultimately, the issues with the economy and employment point back to AI—new technologies are driving growth but may not necessarily solve employment problems. The key is that rate cuts can release liquidity, but once companies get the money, they are more likely to invest in AI and automation rather than hiring employees. In this case, too rapid a pace of rate cuts could actually exacerbate inflationary pressures.

Another thing to watch out for is the manipulation of policy expectations. From threats of tariffs on China, to commitments to Bitcoin strategic reserves, and recent comments involving Venezuela and oil prices—overly optimistic market expectations are common. The same tendency is now emerging with the change of the Federal Reserve Chair.

Therefore, it’s advisable for everyone to remain cautious.