The US political arena is once again embroiled in a power struggle. Trump’s recent statement has sparked public debate—he publicly claimed that the Department of Justice’s lawsuit against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has nothing to do with himself, emphasizing "the court case and the interest rate cut policy are two separate matters." It sounds quite assertive, but the truth isn’t that simple.

Republican Senator Tillis directly issued a stern warning: as long as Powell’s legal issues remain unresolved, no new Fed nominations—including the chair position—will pass confirmation. This move effectively puts a pause button on the Federal Reserve’s leadership.

How serious are the consequences? The Fed is currently in a sensitive period. Inflation has not fully cooled down, and every interest rate decision impacts global capital flows. If Powell becomes entangled in lawsuits or even loses his job, the entire direction of Fed policy could become uncertain. The data is clear: the market’s expectation of six rate cuts within the year at the beginning of the year has now been cut in half to two. The volatility index (VIX) has recently surged 15%, and investors are frantically hedging against the risk of a "political black swan." History shows that each transition of the Fed chair is accompanied by market turbulence—S&P 500 typically retraces more than 8% during similar periods.

This dispute essentially reflects an escalation of partisan conflicts ahead of the upcoming elections. Legal battles, executive appointments, and monetary policy are running on three parallel tracks, weaving a complex web of strategic play. Analysts generally worry that if Powell is truly replaced, the successor will face more direct political pressure, and the Fed’s independence could be compromised.

For holders of cryptocurrencies, this raises a question—will the rate cut window be forced to delay? Will market uncertainty premiums continue to rise? What’s your take? Share your judgment in the comments.