The Cryptocurrency Bill: How Lummis Wants to Redefine Jurisdiction Between Securities and Commodities

Collapse of Bitcoin Reserve Expectations: Market Lessons

The probabilities on Polymarket for an American strategic Bitcoin reserve by 2026 have experienced a spectacular drop: from 70% in early 2025 to 28% currently. A radical turnaround that reveals how the market has gradually recognized the reality behind the White House executive order: a simple administrative management of about 200,000 BTC already seized by the Department of Justice, with no new federal purchases.

This disappointment sharply contrasts with the expectations at the end of 2024, when optimists predicted that Washington would establish a true strategic reserve to offset the national debt. Senator Cynthia Lummis, the main supporter of this vision in Congress, has, however, maintained focus on a different path: regulatory clarification through the 2026 cryptocurrency bill.

The Bill: Separate to Regulate

The Responsible Financial Innovation Act represents the most ambitious attempt so far to resolve the jurisdictional confusion that has paralyzed the American crypto sector. The proposal establishes a fundamental principle: drawing a clear line between securities and commodities in the digital asset world.

According to Lummis, this distinction allows legitimate projects to operate under predictable rules. On one side, the CFTC would gain jurisdiction over crypto assets that do not confer financial interests in entities; on the other, assets tied to property rights or profit remain under SEC supervision. This division directly addresses the conflicts of jurisdiction that have characterized recent sector scandals.

What the Legislation Actually Provides

Beyond the securities versus commodities issue, the bill introduces concrete measures for protection and oversight:

Custody and Financial Checks
Crypto companies holding assets for clients must demonstrate effective control over those assets. Annual audits conducted by independent accountants will confirm the actual presence of funds, preventing misuse.

Fully-Reserving Stablecoins
Only depository institutions will be able to issue them. Issuers will maintain 100% reserves backing circulating tokens and will guarantee redemption at face value.

Anti-Money Laundering Compliance
The Treasury, SEC, and CFTC will assess adherence to AML programs and counter-terrorism financing provisions. Penalties await those who violate financial registration requirements.

Tax Incentives for Ordinary Transactions
Purchases with digital assets will enjoy income tax exemptions when gains or losses remain below $200, targeting daily transactions rather than speculative trading.

A Changing Political Context

The legislative proposal coincides with a transitional moment in the crypto political landscape. Lummis has announced she will not run for re-election in 2026, a piece of news that increases uncertainty about the future of cryptocurrency laws in Congress. Her departure represents the loss of one of the most influential voices advocating progressive crypto policies.

However, the 2026 bill remains an ambitious legislative document that, if passed, would completely reshape the relationship between the crypto sector and American federal authorities.

The Significance of Regulatory Clarity

Regulatory uncertainty has slowed the development of digital asset markets in the United States for years. A predictable legal framework would foster innovation while maintaining protections for investors. If the bill succeeds, it would mark a paradigm shift in how Washington approaches cryptocurrencies: from regulatory confusion to structured coexistence among different supervisory authorities.