Solana at a critical point: Rebound signals or another trap for the bulls?

Solana is trading in an unstable equilibrium. After a sharp decline phase, SOL has found support at the key level of 118–120 USD, where buyers are beginning to show interest. The current price of $142.92, with a +4.89% increase over 24 hours, suggests a renewed buying interest; however, the broad market structure remains bearish—an important distinction for any trader considering long positions.

Is this the start of a corrective rally or just a wind before the storm?

Many indicators suggest selling pressure is weakening, but certainty is still lacking. The price is moving within a tight range resembling a wedge formation—technically indicating a decrease in downward momentum. Importantly, every attempt to dip below 118–120 USD has been met with renewed buying. This is not yet confirmation of a reversal, but rather a sign of sellers exhausting their momentum.

Momentum indicators send mixed signals. On the 4-hour chart, RSI shows a bullish divergence—price holds at lows, but the indicator’s strength is increasing. On the daily chart, a double bottom pattern appears to be forming, which theoretically strengthens hopes for a base-building phase. However, at this stage, these are early signs, not confirmation of a trend reversal.

Technical scenarios and critical levels

The game revolves around three key zones:

Nearest target for bulls: 132–136 USD
Breaking this resistance with increasing volume could open the door to extending the correction toward 145–158 USD. This zone remains decisive—reaching it on low volume would trap buyers.

Main negation zone: 145–160 USD
Here, sellers have traditionally repelled recent attempts to resume the uptrend. Until SOL trades convincingly above this range, a scenario of persistent bearish pressure remains. Negation in this context means that a breakout does not hold—price falls back below the level, signaling a return to a bearish structure.

Line of defense: Below 118–120 USD
Breaking this support opens a direct path to 105–100 USD. This would be a scenario where the correction is merely a consolidation before another wave of selling.

What to expect from upcoming moves

Solana needs clear confirmations for the corrective rally to be credible:

• A breakout of the descending trendline with a close above it
• Sustained trading above 132 USD with increasing trading volume
• RSI stabilizing above the median—currently too close to extremes

Without these conditions, upward moves could turn into a sequence of lower highs, confirming bearish control.

Medium-term investor outlook

By 2026, SOL could oscillate between 180–250 USD if network adoption and integrations continue to expand. Conversely, a more bearish scenario could see it drop toward 120 USD in case of significant market disruptions. Currently, both bears and bulls have valid arguments—markets await a decisive move with clear confirmation.

Practical tips for traders

The current situation is a zone of observation, not immediate action. It’s better to wait until the price demonstrates strength above resistance before engaging in long positions. Any attempt to rise below 145 USD should be viewed skeptically—it could be a false signal rather than the start of a rally.

Risk management is crucial: any negation scenario below support levels could accelerate a second wave of bearish pressure. Wait for confirmation of the structure before committing capital with greater confidence.