XRP cyclical interpretation of the 2017 structure: Can the rebound after liquidation trigger a new cycle?

According to cryptocurrency market observations, XRP’s current price is $2.09, down 0.23%. Senior technical analysts have identified a rare historical pattern repeating on the daily chart—this pattern previously appeared during the early stages of the 2017 bull market.

$19 Billion Liquidation and Price Reformation

The market liquidation event on October 10th last year was the largest on record, with crypto market liquidations reaching approximately $19 billion. XRP quickly rebounded afterward, gaining over 100%, and then began forming a key technical pattern.

Analysts point out that XRP is currently building a higher low structure, with the possibility of a double bottom formation. During this bottoming process, the market faces ongoing downward pressure, while retail participation is at its lowest point of the year, contrasting sharply with the active market a year ago.

Lessons from the 2017 “Double Bottom”

A similar sequence occurred in 2017: first, a large-scale liquidation created a spike, followed by a prolonged consolidation phase testing investor confidence. Ultimately, XRP formed a double bottom during that cycle, then entered a rapid upward phase.

The current market environment is also filled with uncertainty, with multiple technical and macro indicators sending conflicting signals. As long as the higher low is maintained, this structure remains technically constructive.

Macro Risks and Market Stress Testing

The Bank of Japan is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision on December 19th, with an expected 25 basis point hike to 0.75%, marking the first rate increase in nearly a year. Historical data shows that each rate hike by the Bank of Japan has been associated with significant downward pressure on the crypto market, including XRP.

Additionally, the market is undergoing multiple DDoS stress tests—not only from macro policy shocks but also from conflicting on-chain data and technical signals. The long-term EMA indicator on the three-day candlestick chart has issued a bearish signal, which historically often precedes moderate to severe corrections lasting several months.

However, analysts also note that this indicator has failed in 2024, followed by a strong rebound, adding uncertainty to the current outlook.

On-Chain Data’s Double-Edged Signals

Beyond negative factors, whale wallets are accumulating XRP, indicating that large holders still have expectations for the future. Meanwhile, there is a liquidity concentration zone above the current price, which the market may test.

These signs suggest that XRP is in a fragile but potentially promising stage. Investors need to carefully weigh the downside risks against long-term upside opportunities and closely monitor the upcoming Bank of Japan decision as a potential market turning point.