## SUI at the crossroads: Unlocking $80 million soon could break market balance

Blockchain Layer-1 Sui (SUI) is currently at a challenging crossroads. After a sharp 63.9% decline during this period, the asset is trading around $1.84 with very weak momentum. Although it increased by 1.05% in the past 24 hours, trading volume is only $4.01 million – a modest figure not enough to confirm a true recovery. Notably, capital flow is extremely sensitive ahead of the upcoming large token unlock event.

## Major sell-off wave approaching

According to DeFiLlama, the total value of tokens unlocked amounts to $80.41 million, representing 1.11% of the total SUI supply. Early contributors will receive about $12.58 million – a significant amount often seen as a sell signal from those with deep vested interests in the project.

Strangely, despite the imminent sell pressure, spot investors are beginning to move capital out of the market before the storm hits. CoinGlass data over the past 48 hours shows a net withdrawal of $5 million, with selling activity peaking on December 27. This indicates cautious traders are avoiding exposure rather than fueling optimism.

## Resistance zone: The fateful boundary

Technically, SUI is stuck at a key resistance zone on the price chart. TradingView data shows this is a battleground between two forces. Without a successful breakout, a drop to the $1 or lower is very realistic. Conversely, if it surpasses the resistance, SUI could target the $3.1 level – the last tested price on October 6 before the major sell-off.

Currently, the asset shows no clear confirmation of direction. Weak bullish momentum, neutral capital flow, and the upcoming token unlock could become a tipping point.

## Positive signals are hidden

But not all is bleak. On-chain data from DeFiLlama shows the total value locked (TVL) reaching $922.25 million, with new capital inflows of $24.8 million during this period. This indicates some investors still believe in Sui’s long-term potential.

Additionally, SUI/USDT perpetual contract traders are displaying a clear bullish outlook. CoinGlass reports increasing buy position volume along with positive funding rates, suggesting buyers are gradually gaining dominance in open positions. These indicators imply that the bulls still have strength, despite operating under pressure.

## The coming hours will decide

SUI’s short-term outlook entirely depends on how the market reacts to this major token unlock event. If capital from unlocking agents is absorbed by new investors, SUI could regain momentum. Conversely, if selling pressure is amplified by current withdrawals, the question is not whether SUI can defend the resistance but whether it has enough strength to hold steady.

**In summary**, Sui is at a fragile equilibrium. The upcoming token unlock will be a decisive test for this asset – whether the bulls can defend the important resistance zone or the market will plunge into a new wave of selling, pushing SUI further down.