#美国贸易赤字状况 The Fed and Treasury's latest move—crypto folks need to keep a close eye on it.

A new development just emerged: the US Treasury is using MBS purchase plans to directly counter the Fed's balance sheet reduction, and these two departments are engaging in a liquidity tug-of-war. On the surface, it's a macro-financial matter, but it has significant implications for us.

First, looking at the Fed—its $15 billion monthly balance sheet reduction is ongoing. Normally, this would be bearish for risk assets like $BTC and $ETH, and everyone thinks so. But the Treasury's hedging tactics are changing the game. They are using MBS purchases of a similar scale to support the market, essentially saying: "We will find ways to ensure liquidity, and the funding pool won't dry up."

What does this mean? It suggests that the macro environment could be much more accommodative than expected—liquidity isn't truly being tightened.

On-chain data has already sensed this shift. Over the past week, Bitcoin exchanges have seen net outflows of over 20,000 coins, large holders (addresses with over 1,000 coins) are quietly accumulating, and active addresses have surged past 900,000. These are typical signals of accumulation. The Ethereum ecosystem isn't lagging either—DeFi total value locked has surpassed $40 billion, gas fees remain stable around 30 Gwei, indicating steady and orderly on-chain activity, with institutions and retail investors quietly entering.

What about market sentiment? The fear and greed index has shifted into greed territory, derivatives markets show increasing long positions, open interest continues to hit new highs, and optimistic market expectations are now mainstream.

Overall, this Treasury hedging operation has alleviated fears of liquidity drying up and is likely to trigger the next rally. Big funds are already positioning in the shadows, and retail FOMO hasn't fully ignited yet—at this point, entering the market isn't too late.

The key is to keep tracking on-chain activity and macro policy developments—don't chase high.