Bitcoin in 2026: Between Optimism and Market Warning Signs

The year 2026 brought mixed emotions to the cryptocurrency market. While the first days of trading went smoothly, analysts’ forecasts seem to be divided. Bitcoin, which reached a peak of $126.08K at the end of 2025, is now hovering around $92.14K, representing a rebound of over 25% from its all-time high. The question investors are asking is simple: is this the beginning of a new upward trend, or the first warning sign?

Will history repeat itself, or will we write a new chapter?

Altcoin Sherpa presents a less pessimistic perspective than many of his industry colleagues. His thesis is clear: 2026 will not be a repeat of the nightmare days of April 2022. During that period, Bitcoin surged sharply from $10,000 to $60,000, only to crash by over 70%. This time, the distribution of gains showed different characteristics.

The years 2024 and 2025 demonstrated that market movements could be more disciplined. Instead of frantic rallies, we observed prolonged periods of consolidation interwoven with moderate increases of 10–30%. This environment is fundamentally different from six years ago. Sherpa points out that even in a pessimistic scenario—if a repeat of 2022 were to occur—Bitcoin could fall below $90,000. However, he considers this unlikely.

According to his analysis, the first quarter of 2026 should bring reasonable gains, with price dynamics comparable to patterns from previous years. Importantly, for alternative coins, the situation could be more dramatic—multiple-fold increases followed by sharp corrections are possible.

The second opinion: warning of an overheated market

CryptoCon, a well-respected analyst in the industry, presents a completely different picture. Based on historical four-year cycles, Bitcoin has observed a decreasing trend in returns. Each subsequent cycle peak requires a larger increase to reach new highs, but investor profits are diminishing. This suggests a slowing pace of appreciation.

His main concern relates to the current market condition. CryptoCon believes that speculation across various markets—from commodities to precious metals—has led to overheating. Excessive speculation, understood as investing mainly based on the hope of quick profits without fundamental analysis, has created unstable conditions. He mentioned that even gold and silver, which haven’t been so hot in decades, are finally cooling off.

His verdict? Investors should prepare for a slowdown in growth. Instead of a (bullish long-term upward trend), the market is likely heading into a period of consolidation and potential declines.

What should I know?

Disagreement among analysts shows that 2026 will be unpredictable. While Sherpa sees the possibility of reasonable profits in Q1, CryptoCon warns against a common investor misconception—the assumption that history does not repeat itself. The reality is that both scenarios are possible.

The key will be monitoring not only the Bitcoin price at $92.14K but also broader macroeconomic indicators and on-chain activity. 2026 will be a test of the maturity of the cryptocurrency market.