The rarer Bitcoin becomes: When institutionalized demand meets supply "bottleneck"

In recent days, the bitcoin market has been witnessing an interesting situation: while buying pressure from long-term investors continues to increase strongly, the circulating supply is shrinking rapidly. The question is – how much real bitcoin is actually available for purchase?

“Institutional” Buyers Control Most of the Market

In the past two weeks, Strategy has shown everything through action: buying 10,000 BTC in one week, worth over $900 million. To date, their total holdings reach approximately 671,000 BTC, valued at over $50 billion, making Strategy one of the largest bitcoin holders worldwide.

But Strategy is just a “big player” in a game that is gradually changing. According to Glassnode data, long-term investor groups hold 14.35 million BTC, accounting for more than 70% of the total liquid circulating bitcoin.

Breaking it down further:

• 29 publicly listed companies own 1.082 million BTC, with Strategy alone accounting for 62% (671,000 BTC)
• Spot bitcoin ETF funds hold a total of 1.311 million BTC:
  • BlackRock: ~777,000 BTC
  • Fidelity: ~202,000 BTC
  • Grayscale: ~167,000 BTC
• Governments own about 615,000 BTC (U.S.: 325,000, China: ~190,000)

Notably: in October, only 67 companies held positive bitcoin balances, but as prices fell, this number increased to 153. This suggests that new companies are quietly entering the market.

The “Real” Tradable Bitcoin Supply Is Shrinking

The theoretical limit of bitcoin is 21 million, but the reality is quite different:

Currently mined: 19.96 million BTC (95% of total supply) Unmined: ~1.04 million BTC Mining rate: ~450 BTC/day (current reward of 3.125 BTC/block, halving expected in 2028)

However, the real decisive factor is not the unmined bitcoin, but how much of the mined bitcoin is actually liquid.

Statistical data shows:

• Over 30% of bitcoin has not moved in a year, called “sleeping holdings”
• 20% is believed to be permanently lost (private keys lost, owners deceased, etc.)
• 3.409 million BTC have not moved in over 10 years, with about 1 million BTC believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto

Analyst Murphy estimates that at least 2.14 million BTC may have been permanently inaccessible or immobile due to lost private keys or inaccessibility.

The “Bitcoin Pool” for Trading Is Disappearing

The most direct indicator is the balance on exchanges:

Currently, exchange wallets hold about 2.49 million BTC, and this trend continues to decline, reaching the lowest level since 2023.

This means: while demand is increasingly “concentrated in the hands of institutions,” supply is continuously tightening. As a result, the pool of bitcoin ready for immediate sale is shrinking rapidly.

What Is the Real Story?

As long-term investors accumulate, institutions refuse to sell, and long-held bitcoins are “locked tight” – market liquidity is facing a structural bottleneck.

As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $92.11K, with circulating supply of 19,974,746 BTC and a total market value of $1,839.85B. These numbers reflect a market in transformation – where finding truly liquid supply becomes increasingly difficult.

How many days until the market faces complete exhaustion? Perhaps no one can answer precisely, but one thing is certain: the structure of the bitcoin market is quietly but decisively changing.