Federal Reserve's interest rate cut schedule rewritten: Barclays delays until June, market expectations undergo major adjustments

The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut timetable is being rewritten. Barclays’ latest forecast predicts that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in June and December, respectively, which means the market’s previous expectation of the first rate cut in March has become unlikely. What is behind this adjustment, and how will it impact the crypto market?

Why the Rate Cut Expectation Has Been Delayed

Non-farm Payroll Data as a Turning Point

The key shift occurred after the release of December non-farm payroll data in the US. The data showed that in December, non-farm employment increased by only 50,000 jobs, well below market expectations, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.4%. This seemingly contradictory data sends a clear signal: the US labor market remains resilient, and there is no obvious deterioration in employment.

According to the latest news, this data directly changed market expectations for Federal Reserve policy. CME Group data shows that the probability of the Fed holding interest rates steady in January has surged to 95%. Some market participants previously bet on a rate cut in January, but now that expectation has largely been shattered.

Barclays’ Adjustment and Its Implications

Barclays’ forecast adjustment reflects a broader shift in market consensus. The Fed has already cut rates three times in a row, and the market initially expected the easing cycle to continue. However, the resilience of the labor market has dispelled the need for the Fed to rush into further easing. When employment data is not weak enough, the Fed has no need to cut rates to support the economy.

This also explains why Barclays has pushed the first rate cut from March to June. It doesn’t mean the Fed has completely abandoned rate cuts, but rather that the pace will be more cautious, largely depending on whether inflation data can continue to approach the 2% target.

Market Divergence Still Exists

According to the latest institutional forecast statistics, while June and September are high-frequency rate cut windows, there are still significant differences among institutions regarding the number of rate cuts in 2026.

The mainstream consensus (two cuts of 5 basis points each) includes Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, etc., which generally expect two cuts throughout the year. However, more aggressive institutions like Citigroup forecast three cuts, while conservative ones like J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank expect only one. Institutions like HSBC and Standard Chartered even believe there may be no cuts in the entire year.

These differences stem from varying judgments on three variables: the slope of inflation decline, the resilience of the labor market, and potential policy adjustments brought by the new Fed chair.

Impact on the Crypto Market

The delay in rate cut expectations has directly impacted crypto assets. Data shows that after the non-farm payroll data was released, Bitcoin fell to $90,172, down more than 1%. This reflects a basic logic: if the Fed does not cut rates, market liquidity is unlikely to ease easily.

For high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies, a loose liquidity environment often enhances their relative attractiveness. When liquidity expectations shift and risk-free yields remain high, some funds tend to move from high-risk assets to safer investments. This also explains why the postponement of rate cuts puts pressure on risk assets.

Summary

Barclays’ forecast adjustment signals a re-pricing of market expectations for Fed policy. The delay from March to June reflects a renewed understanding of the resilience of the labor market and a more cautious approach to rate cuts. Although there is still divergence among institutions regarding the total number of cuts this year, a common point is that the era of rapid easing may be over, and the Fed will adjust more dynamically based on data.

For the crypto market, this means short-term liquidity expectations are shifting, but it also provides a clear observation window: future inflation and employment data will directly determine the timing and frequency of rate cuts. June has become a new key date.