XRP Faces Structural Weakness: Technical Setup Warns of $1.55 Test

Key takeaways:

• XRP’s descending triangle pattern breakdown signals a corrective move toward $1.55, implying a 25% pullback from current levels
• Weekly RSI deterioration combined with rising price action reveals underlying bearish momentum divergence
• Plummeting daily active addresses on the XRP Ledger indicate weakening network engagement and reduced transaction volume

Network Deterioration: A Concerning Catalyst for XRP Weakness

The XRP Ledger ecosystem has experienced a notable contraction in user participation over the past four months. Glassnode data reveals that daily active addresses have collapsed from a peak of 577,000 on June 14 to approximately 44,000 currently—a decline of over 92%. This sharp drop in on-chain activity mirrors broader sentiment shifts and suggests investors are reducing their engagement with the network.

The situation worsens when examining new address creation. Daily new addresses have retreated from 13,500 on November 10 to just 4,000 at present, signaling deteriorating adoption momentum. Historically, such network activity contractions typically precede price weakness, as reduced transaction throughput dampens buying pressure and liquidity resilience.

This liquidity drain creates an unfavorable microstructure for XRP, making the token vulnerable to deeper corrections if technical support levels falter.

Descending Triangle Pattern Breakdown: Technical Confirmation of Downside Risk

XRP’s price structure has been forming a descending triangle pattern since the break below the $3 psychological threshold in October. This pattern—defined by a flat support base and progressively declining resistance peaks—resolved when XRP/USD pierced below the $2.20 support line on Monday.

From a technical perspective, the measured move target for this descending triangle pattern sits at $1.55, which would represent a 25% decline from current price action. The resistance cluster between $2.38 and $2.40—where approximately 3.23 billion XRP tokens remain underwater—presents additional headwinds. This supply overhang, reinforced by the 100-day simple moving average, creates a formidable barrier that limits upside recovery attempts.

Bulls are currently defending the $2.00 level, but a breakdown below this support would likely accelerate the decline toward the descending triangle pattern’s measured target.

Weekly Bearish Divergence: Momentum Exhaustion Signals

A critical technical warning emerges from the weekly timeframe, where XRP exhibits a pronounced bearish divergence between price action and the Relative Strength Index. Between November 2024 and July 2025, XRP/USD established higher peaks within a rising channel structure. During this identical period, the weekly RSI contracted sharply from 92 to 68—forming progressively lower highs despite advancing prices.

This divergence between strengthening prices and weakening momentum typically signals underlying exhaustion among market participants. The pattern suggests that while price moved higher, fewer buyers participated in pushing those gains, indicating diminishing conviction and intensifying profit-taking behavior.

The weekly RSI has since retreated to 39, confirming that market conditions remain tilted toward the downside. Additionally, the 50-week simple moving average at $2.32 continues exerting considerable overhead resistance, potentially constraining any recovery attempts over the coming weeks.

The Convergence: Multiple Signals Point to Deeper Correction

When aggregated, these three forces—deteriorating network activity, descending triangle pattern breakdown, and weekly bearish momentum divergence—create a concerning technical setup for XRP holders. The token currently trades 1.83% lower than seven days prior, underscoring the ongoing pressure.

The measured downside target of $1.55 represents the critical level that would validate the descending triangle pattern hypothesis. Whether XRP finds support at intermediate levels or breaks decisively through $2.00 will likely determine whether this technical scenario materializes over the remainder of the quarter.