ZEC's performance on the 1-hour timeframe this round is indeed worth analyzing.

From a straight rise from 360.70 to 417.99, it temporarily broke through the upper Bollinger Band (416.79), then pulled back to around 415. This rapid testing rhythm is usually a move by the main force to concentrate chips, rather than a simple top signal.

**What do technical indicators say**

EMA(7) is stuck at 405.87, while MA(7) is at 404.14, forming a solid support band. More importantly, EMA(30) has already crossed above MA(30), indicating a short-term bullish alignment. MACD is running above the zero line, although the green momentum bars are shrinking, DIF and DEA have not formed a death cross, which is a normal correction signal during an upward trend.

In other words, although the K-line is pulling back, the overall bullish structure remains intact.

**On-chain chip flow insights**

Recent large transfers of ZEC have significantly increased, but exchange inflows have decreased—what does this mean? It indicates that chips are moving from retail investors to large holders. The number of active on-chain addresses in the privacy coin sector is quietly rising. As an established leader, ZEC's market attention is returning.

This combination of chip concentration and active addresses often signals an upcoming market brewing.

**Macroeconomic positive factors**

The Federal Reserve's expectation of rate cuts in early 2026 is heating up, and market risk appetite is shifting toward high-volatility assets. The privacy coin sector fits this expectation perfectly. Plus, ZEC's ZSA (Zcash Shielded Assets) upgrade proposal is about to enter the testnet. Once this feature is implemented, the ecological imagination space could be directly unlocked.

**How to operate**

This pullback should be understood as a healthy consolidation after a breakout. As long as the price stays above the 405-408 range (the overlapping zone of EMA7 and MA7), it is very likely to launch an attack toward 430-450 later.

Aggressive approach: buy in batches around 408, set stop-loss at 398, and target 430.

More conservative approach: wait for the price to break through with increased volume above 420 again, then follow in, riding the trend.

If it falls below 400, be cautious, as there may be a risk of trap trading in the short term. But from a medium- to long-term perspective, the three logical layers—privacy narrative, technological upgrades, macro background—are still in place, and the trend still points upward.

Trading ultimately is a game of probabilities, not gambling. Currently, ZEC's odds are indeed favoring the bulls.