The interest rate cut telescope is reversed; can Bitcoin continue the rebound story?

On November 26th, the Bitcoin market staged an unexpected reversal. After weeks of weakness, BTC suddenly surged past the $90,000 mark, with a nearly 4% increase within 24 hours, reclaiming the territory lost over the previous week. This rally not only broke the market patterns around Thanksgiving but was also driven by three simultaneous forces: a reversal in macro expectations, a shift in capital flows, and improvements in market structure.

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Suddenly Shift, Sending Positive Signals

The latest US employment data became the trigger for all this. Initial jobless claims fell to 216,000, the lowest since April, providing a strong boost to the market. More importantly, while the PPI report showed some overall increase, the core PPI rose by only 2.6%, the smallest increase since July last year.

This data was immediately reinterpreted by Wall Street. JPMorgan’s economists adjusted their forecast—now suggesting the Fed is very likely to start cutting rates in December, overturning their previous judgment of a delay until January next year. The bank’s analysis pointed out that recent statements from several Fed officials, including New York Fed President Williams, indicate a tendency toward rate cuts, forcing them to reassess the situation. JPMorgan’s new forecast predicts the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in December and again in January.

The macroeconomic optimism quickly translated into the crypto space. Data shows Ethereum (ETH) also rose 2% to around $3,025, with major coins like XRP, Solana (SOL), and BNB all gaining. The total crypto market cap rebounded to $3.08 trillion, nearly a 3% recovery within 24 hours, with a trading volume of $139 billion. Bitcoin’s market share further increased to 56.5%, while Ethereum maintained around 11.5%.

ETF Capital Flows Reignite, Institutional Attitudes Shift Subtly

The most direct change in the market was reflected in capital flows. Previously, the market faced significant ETF outflows, even setting records. But by Wednesday, there was a turning point—spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed about $129 million in a single day, Ethereum ETFs saw inflows exceeding $78 million, Solana ETFs added $53 million, and XRP ETFs gained $35 million. This indicates that institutional funds are reallocating into crypto assets.

On-chain liquidation data further confirmed a deep market adjustment. Over the past 24 hours, a total of over $273 million in positions were forcibly liquidated, with short positions dominating ($197 million), and Bitcoin’s liquidation volume being the largest at $86 million.

Bottom Signals Gradually Emerging?

Crypto analyst Abramchart from CryptoQuant pointed out that the market just experienced a significant “leverage wipeout”—total contract holdings plummeted from $4.5 billion to $2.8 billion, the largest decline in this cycle. This is not a bearish signal; rather, it resembles a market self-healing process, where over-leveraged speculative positions are cleared, laying a healthier foundation for subsequent rises.

More importantly, despite intense volatility, BTC’s price has held firmly above $79,000 (the institutional ETF average price), indicating that large funds have not fled but are providing strong psychological and capital support.

On-chain indicators near historical bottom zones

On-chain analyst Ali tracks the Puell Multiple, which is currently at 0.67. Although it hasn’t yet reached the historical cycle bottom threshold of 0.50, it is quite close. Developed by David Puell, this indicator measures miners’ profitability and their selling pressure on the market. The calculation is: daily USD value of newly issued Bitcoin divided by the 365-day average of this value. Simply put, it reflects miners’ current selling pressure relative to historical averages.

Historical data shows that since 2015, when this indicator drops below 0.50, it often signals a Bitcoin cycle bottom. This suggests that miners’ selling pressure may be easing, and the market is entering a critical observation window, with signs of a mid-term bottom gradually forming.

Technical confirmation of buyer dominance

Technical analyst Skew Δ observed on the 4-hour chart that Bitcoin currently exhibits a bullish-friendly technical structure, with multiple momentum and trend indicators such as the 50EMA, RSI, and Stoch RSI signaling positive momentum. Technically, $88,000 is a lifeline for bulls; the $90,000–$92,000 zone is a key resistance/oscillation area. Whether this zone can be effectively broken will directly determine if the market can initiate a stronger structural upward trend. Traders should closely monitor these key levels.

Real-world Constraints

Despite short-term sentiment improving, the low liquidity environment during the Thanksgiving holiday could amplify any directional volatility. Market strategist Jasper De Maere, from Wintermute, observed options market data indicating traders generally expect Bitcoin to oscillate within the $85,000–$90,000 range rather than break out significantly, suggesting a greater market bias toward maintaining the status quo.

From a medium- to long-term perspective, $74,000 is a crucial support level. If Bitcoin’s weekly close falls below this price, the market could face a larger correction. Currently, BTC is still about 30% below its all-time high of $126,000. Whether this rebound can evolve into a sustained upward trend depends on whether macro policies and capital flows can continue to provide support.