In early 2026, the crypto market experienced some unexpected movements.

On January 10th, an early Bitcoin miner transferred 2,000 BTC into an exchange after being dormant for over 15 years. At the time's price, this transfer was worth approximately $180 million — the first major move by these "ancient holders" since November of last year. Interestingly, every time such ancient Bitcoin addresses show unusual activity in history, it has often signaled a key market turning point.

During the same period, the derivatives market on Bitfinex also became lively. Active large traders were adjusting their positions on a large scale — Bitcoin leveraged long positions shrank from a peak of 73,000 BTC. But surprisingly, the remaining long and short positions still showed a startling disparity: 252:1.

On one side, large holders seem to be exiting, while on the other, leveraged whales appear to be reducing their positions yet remain bullish. The combined activity involves at least $280 million in positions moving simultaneously, which is no coincidence. On-chain data silently tells a story: the market's understanding of the cycle inflection point is diverging. Ancient on-chain footprints and exchange ledgers record this most genuine capital contest.