Does Bitcoin halving no longer matter? The founder of Gate.io explains the new paradigm of the cryptocurrency market

Lin Han, the founder of the cryptocurrency exchange Gate.io, speaks out on the future of Bitcoin and points to a fundamental shift in the mechanisms driving the market. According to him, the traditional “four-year cycle” model based on BTC halving has been completely discredited by market reality.

Bitcoin Halving Losing Its Power — It’s No Longer a Secret

In the past, Bitcoin halving served as a key catalyst for price increases, but Lin Han emphasizes that its influence is gradually diminishing. This results from a simple fact: as the market matures, new Bitcoin supply has become too small to dominate the price. Today, halving is more of a technical cycle than a groundbreaking market event. This change reflects a fundamental shift — Bitcoin has ceased to be an isolated island from the financial world and has become just a risky asset within a broad, diversified space.

Bitcoin Moves in Tandem with the Global Economy

Han’s key observation concerns the new relationship between cryptocurrencies and the US stock market as well as global macroeconomics. Several years ago, the crypto ecosystem operated almost independently, but now BTC’s dynamics closely follow stock index movements and economic conditions. This means that the cryptocurrency market is now a full-fledged participant in the global financial system.

Market History: From DeFi Summer to Maturity ERA

Lin Han points to 2020 as the last moment when the market operated mainly with internal momentum — during the euphoric period around “DeFi Summer.” However, by 2022, when macroeconomic conditions worsened, the sector quickly collapsed. The period of 2022–2023 was relatively cold for the entire industry. The breakthrough came only at the end of 2023, when ETF approvals in the United States and expectations of economic recovery reignited investor enthusiasm.

Bear Market on the Horizon? More of a Correction Than a Crash

Han dismisses the scenario of a sharp bear market similar to those of previous cycles. His argument is simple: even in the case of a significant correction, a drop from the range of 100,000–120,000 dollars to 80,000–90,000 dollars would still represent a relatively high price. This is a completely different approach from the “all or nothing” mentality of a few years ago.

It is also interesting that data from the Gate.io platform regarding November showed limited volume declines, contrasting with reports of liquidity issues elsewhere in the market. This suggests that the bull run remains stronger than it might appear.

New Risk: The AI Bubble Could Dominate the Scene

According to Han, the real challenge for the market is not a Bitcoin crash, but the question of the health of the artificial intelligence ecosystem. This year, enormous capital flowed into data centers and computing infrastructure, but a fundamental question arose: is this a bubble? Despite impressive results from infrastructure companies, the profitability of many mega-projects remains uncertain. If this bubble bursts, ripple effects could be deep for entire financial markets.

In summary, Lin Han depicts a picture of the cryptocurrency market evolving from an impulsive youth into a mature participant in the global financial system. The bull run could last much longer than purist analysts assume, but today’s threats come from unexpected directions — not from traditional Bitcoin cycles.