2026-01-12 06:24:33

Gold's recent trend is indeed worth paying attention to. After breaking through $4,600, there is a common market view—long-term prospects are optimistic, but there is a short-term risk of a pullback.

Breaking down the support logic for gold: expectations of Fed rate cuts, continuous inflows into ETFs, and physical demand as a floor—all three factors indeed support the long-term upward trend of gold. From the perspectives of inflation resistance and safe-haven demand, the fundamentals of gold have not deteriorated—the backdrop of global liquidity easing still exists.

But that's the problem—gold is already near its historical highs. After reaching this level, the momentum for further gains naturally weakens, and a short-term technical correction becomes a high-probability event.

The key point lies in the correlation between gold and the crypto market. Both are categorized as "inflation-hedging assets," and their short-term movements often show synchronized rises and falls. Once gold begins to correct, Bitcoin is likely to experience volatility as well. This is an important risk signal for crypto participants—avoid blindly increasing positions at high levels. Instead, wait for gold to complete its correction and stabilize before the crypto market's volatility truly eases.

However, from a long-term perspective, there's no need to be overly pessimistic. The upward logic of gold and the expectation of rate cuts in the crypto space overlap. The Fed will ultimately choose to cut rates, and both gold and Bitcoin will benefit from liquidity expansion. This short-term correction is essentially just a "natural pause for high-position assets," not a trend reversal signal.

Practical advice: long-term investors holding gold or Bitcoin can continue to hold, but should control their positions in the short term to avoid leveraging at high levels. A more prudent approach is to wait for key price levels to re-enter positions. If you prefer swing trading, consider starting with a light position, waiting for the correction to complete, and then buying on dips—this can help avoid risks and reduce costs.

Follow the rhythm of macro liquidity rather than blindly opposing market trends—that is the most prudent operational logic.

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DeepRabbitHole

· 3h ago

I laugh when gold drops, anyway I don't have any spot holdings, just watch how Bitcoin follows the trend How are those who added positions at high levels doing now? They said they'd never sell coins haha Wait, will gold really adjust? Feels like I'm about to get cut again I've been hearing about liquidity for a year, when will it actually arrive It's so annoying to have coins and gold tied together, I just want Bitcoin to surge on its own Just hold and relax, don't bother yourself, really All-time high? Then what about my cost basis? Break-even is still far away Dipping to buy sounds simple, but the actual operation makes my blood pressure soar The rate cut expectation is back, can this thing be reliable once? Stop messing with your positions, you're just cutting your own hand Short-term correction, long-term bullish, I'm tired of hearing this kind of rhetoric

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LayerZeroHero

· 01-12 06:54

Well, technically verifying the linkage mechanism between gold and BTC, the data indeed points to the same liquidity cycle... Wait until gold adjusts before taking action; this logic can't be broken. The 4600 level is indeed a key support, next we need to see the stance of the Federal Reserve. It's a rigorous statement, but I still want to do a short-term test, wait for signal confirmation before acting. From an cross-asset arbitrage perspective, the correlation between gold and the crypto market is quite strong... No, I should wait until key price levels are clear before adding positions; risk control comes first. Leverage at high levels must be cut, this lesson is deeply ingrained. The fundamental logic is clear, but the technical adjustment space still needs observation. The expectation of interest rate cuts is the core driver; liquidity will eventually expand. Short-term position control is indeed the most prudent approach, I agree.

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ContractSurrender

· 01-12 06:53

Gold at 4600 is already at a high level, can BTC still follow and rise? This logic is a bit hard to hold up. --- It's always "wait for the adjustment before adding," I'm so tired of waiting. Isn't it better to go all-in now? --- Leverage added near historical highs, my happiness is that simple. --- The expectation of interest rate cuts has been hyped for so long. When the cut actually happens, does gold still have room to rise? --- This set of anti-inflation asset linkage, next time do we have to wait for gold to give the green light to the crypto circle? --- I've been listening to controlling positions for a year, how many multiples have I missed, brother? --- Natural correction at high levels sounds nice, but isn't it still a stop-loss?

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probably_nothing_anon

· 01-12 06:51

Gold and BTC are really somewhat synchronized. This wave of correction has arrived, and the crypto market has to shake along. Wait, is the rate cut really coming? Feels like the Fed might change its mind again. Brothers using high leverage at high positions... good luck to you. Liquidity has been talked about for a long time, but it still depends on the Fed's stance. Short-term volatility, just ride it out. Anyway, long-term is fine. Gold has reached 4600, I thought it would keep climbing. Not using leverage is really the safest move, but unfortunately no one listens. The crypto market is about to ride the roller coaster with gold again, a bit annoying.

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OvertimeSquid

· 01-12 06:49

Buying more at high levels always leads to losses; it's more reliable to wait and watch in this wave. --- The correlation between gold and Bitcoin is truly amazing; when one moves, the other trembles. --- Wait for the adjustment to be complete before entering; jumping in now just makes you the bag holder. --- That's right, liquidity is fundamental; everything else is just虚的. --- Short-term risks are indeed high; I've already cut my position in half and will wait for signals. --- Be cautious at historical highs; greedy people always end up regretting. --- With such strong rate cut expectations, what is there to fear? Long-term holding is the way to go. --- It's a paradise for swing traders; buying low and selling high is how to make profits. --- It's that same theory of high-level adjustments; every time they say so, but the market keeps pushing higher. --- Position management is indeed important; I once blew up my account because of leverage.

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GasGuzzler

· 01-12 06:37

Buying more at high levels is asking for trouble; this wave of gold correction will definitely leave Bitcoin behind. --- Wait, so should I be out of the market or holding a light position now? I'm a bit unsure. --- Expectations of rate cuts have been hyped up all along; let's wait until it actually happens before acting. --- I feel even more dangerous with gold and coins linked like this... --- To put it simply, don't be greedy. Wait for the correction to be complete before jumping in—keep it simple and straightforward. --- Historically, near all-time highs are often big traps; everyone wants to buy the dip, but everyone gets caught. --- I'm tired of the liquidity expansion logic; the key question is when the Federal Reserve will actually take action. --- I agree with not using leverage; everything else is just repetitive talk. --- So should I reduce my holdings now or just keep lying low? Just tell me straight.

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