When Bitcoin Surges, Sellers Await: Decoding 3 Bearish Warnings Behind the Bull Trap

Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed 14.50% from its recent lows near $80,600, testing resistance around $93,000 as market participants debate whether this represents genuine bullish momentum or a carefully disguised bull trap—a temporary price surge before a deeper decline. At current levels of $92.16K, this question has become increasingly urgent for traders positioning for the weeks ahead.

Technical Warning: The Bear Flag Formation

One of the most compelling bearish signals emerges from classical chart patterns. Several market analysts have identified a bear flag structure—a configuration that historically signals downward continuation during existing downtrends. This pattern, when resolved, typically leads to another significant leg lower.

The technical mathematics behind this setup is sobering. By measuring the preceding downtrend’s magnitude and projecting it from a potential breakdown zone near $88,000, the implied target lands around $77,100 by December—representing approximately a 16% decline from present price levels. Such a move would test critical support zones and validate the bearish case for a meaningful correction.

The 2021 Mirror: A Fractal Warning

Perhaps most unsettling to bullish investors is the structural similarity between Bitcoin’s current price action and the 2021 market cycle. Analysts tracking this pattern have identified nearly identical setups: a double-top formation followed by a sharp breakdown, then a deceptive recovery that functions as a bull trap before a more substantial collapse.

History suggests this matters significantly. During 2021’s equivalent setup, Bitcoin subsequently entered a prolonged downtrend that ultimately halved its value. The current fractal displays a comparable sequence, with price currently hovering near the same support levels where the previous cycle also triggered capitulation.

If this pattern repeats precisely, Bitcoin could revisit the $40,000 zone during early 2026—a loss exceeding 50% from today’s price. Some analysts point to Bitcoin’s breach of its multi-year ascending trendline as additional evidence that such 70%+ drawdowns are within the realm of possibility.

Market Sentiment Flashing Red: Google Trends Evidence

Perhaps the most intriguing confluence of bearish signals comes from search behavior data. Google Trends analysis reveals that searches for “Bitcoin bear market” hit record levels in the past week on a five-year basis. Historically, these spikes in fear-based searches have preceded significant market selloffs with remarkable consistency.

In May 2021, similar sentiment extremes appeared as Bitcoin hovered near $60,000 before experiencing a 50%+ correction. Again in June 2022, Google searches spiked as BTC traded around $26,000, eventually sliding to the cycle bottom near $15,450. Even August’s spike in bear market searches preceded a notable downturn in price.

The current extreme in sentiment suggests that while Bitcoin might initially surge toward $97,000, this move could function as a final capitulation top—a moment when retail participation peaks before the trend reverses sharply lower. Market participants widely citing year-end targets of $150,000 may find themselves trapped, unaware that the rally structure itself contains the seeds of their losses.