5 Things You Need to Understand About Bitcoin This Week: Between the Death Cross and the Rebound Potential

The Bitcoin market is at a critical inflection point as November closes. The cryptocurrency, trading around $92,170, oscillates between technical pessimism and tentative signs of recovery. Below are five key issues that will shape BTC’s direction in the coming days.

1. The Bitcoin Death Cross and Its Historical Implications

On November 15, Bitcoin experienced an event closely watched by technical analysts: the formation of the “death cross” on daily charts. This phenomenon occurs when the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) drops below the 200-day equivalent.

Although this signal has bearish connotations, historical data reveal an interesting duality. Analysts like Benjamin Cowen have noted that previous death crosses often marked local lows in prior bull cycles. However, the effectiveness of this signal depends on the market cycle phase in which it occurs.

Timing is crucial. If Bitcoin fails to recover within a week, the 200-day SMA at $110,130 would become the next target, establishing a lower high and sealing more prolonged bearish prospects. Traders with precise analytical skills understand that a rebound must materialize now to avoid a sustained downward trend.

2. Technical Structure: Intact or Fractured?

The assessment of Bitcoin’s technical outlook presents contrasting views among experts. Some traders like BitBull have observed modest recoveries: Bitcoin recaptured its 20-period simple moving average on the 4-hour chart for the first time in two weeks.

Analyst Daan Crypto Trades warns of a more serious consequence: Bitcoin has completely lost its Bull Market Support Band, leaving a gap of over $20,000 to return to this critical level.

In contrast, Michaël van de Poppe notes patterns on 3-day charts suggesting market bottom formations. Considering the extremely overextended sentiment (comparing it to the FTX collapse in 2022), this analysis predicts consolidation between $90,000 and $96,000 for the upcoming week.

The 50-week EMA adds complexity. Bitcoin’s weekly close below this level two weeks ago was the first since March 2023. Now, this moving average converges with a macro bearish trendline, suggesting that a resistance zone could reject the price again, confirming progressively lower highs.

3. Coin Flows: Speculators Absorbing Long-Term Holdings Distribution

Onchain data from CryptoQuant reveal a significant shift in market composition. Long-term holders (LTH), defined as those holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days, are actively distributing coins. Simultaneously, short-term holders (STH) are absorbing them enthusiastically.

This transfer has reached 63,000 BTC, marking a fundamental structural change. Newcomers to the market, historically more reactive to emotional movements, are accumulating at elevated price levels.

The SOPR indicator (Spent Output Profit Ratio) for STH hit 15-month lows at 0.927 over the weekend, illustrating significant losses among this group. This suggests that speculators entered less favorable positions and face tough decisions on whether to hold or liquidate.

4. Thanksgiving Week: Data Accumulation and Macro Pivots

Next week features a packed calendar despite its shortened duration due to the U.S. holiday. A series of economic reports will hit the market, each potentially driving risk sentiment changes.

Expected data include the Producer Price Index (PPI), the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), Q3 GDP, and initial unemployment claims. These releases could reshape traders’ views on overall economic health.

Interest rate expectations are declining. The odds of a 0.25% cut at the December Federal Reserve meeting are around 70%, according to CME Group. Fed officials themselves have adopted a more hawkish stance, with recent meeting minutes suggesting rates will remain unchanged for the rest of the year.

The context is relevant: analysts like those at Mosaic Asset Company argue that U.S. stock markets are “oversold,” especially considering the S&P 500 RSI briefly dipped below 35, its lowest since April.

5. Market Sentiment: Crypto Leads Recovery While Stocks Fall

The most hopeful shift emerges from the market emotional landscape. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has nearly doubled from its 2025 lows, reaching 19/100 on Monday (still in “extreme fear” territory, but with positive momentum).

This contrasts favorably with the equivalent in traditional markets, which fell to 11/100. For the first time in months, crypto sentiment is positively lagging behind conventional risk assets, potentially signaling a broader recovery.

However, social sentiment indicators reveal historic extremes. Santiment reported that Bitcoin social media sentiment reached its lowest point since December 11, 2023. Bullish versus bearish comments on X, Reddit, and Telegram indicate retail capitulation on a scale unseen in two years.

The structural nature of the decline is significant. Kobeissi Letter emphasized that neither crypto nor stocks were accompanied by defining news; the correction was driven by excessive leverage and cascading liquidations, amplifying investor sentiment shifts.

Bitcoin Outlook This Week

Bitcoin faces a defining week with multiple converging factors. Traders are divided between technical pessimism from the death cross and signs of bottom formations. Critical considerations include: whether Bitcoin maintains its 4-hour SMA-20, whether it manages to close above $92,000 weekly (opening the path to $105K-$110K), and whether market sentiment continues to recover.

Coin flows suggest some speculative capital sees opportunities at these levels, though with considerable uncertainty. The upcoming macroeconomic week will act as a catalyst: U.S. economic data, combined with technical signals, will determine whether Bitcoin rebounds toward $96,000 or falls to new lows.