Curve DAO Under Pressure: Multi-Timeframe Setup Points to Lower Support Test

The Curve DAO token has caught traders’ attention with a 6.6% surge in Open Interest over the past day—a telltale sign that market participants are placing bigger bets. Yet despite this increased leverage activity, CRV has retreated 2.63% in the same period and is down 9.9% over the week, with Bitcoin currently trading around $92.17K after failing to hold above $90k. This disconnect between rising leverage and falling prices often signals capitulation among latecomers.

The Technical Picture Across Multiple Timeframes

Examining the weekly timeframe reveals a deteriorating structure. CRV broke decisively below the $0.49 level and subsequently failed to defend the March support zone at $0.37. The Accumulation/Distribution indicator has been trending lower for the past month, reflecting relentless selling pressure. Meanwhile, the MACD is flashing heavy downside momentum—a classic confirmation of bearish conviction.

The 6-hour chart presents an even clearer trading narrative. After establishing a bearish structure, the token has broken support twice in quick succession. Most critically, there’s a fair value gap (imbalance) sitting overhead near $0.38. This gap, highlighted as a white box on the chart, acts as a supply zone where buyers previously capitulated. A test and rejection of this $0.38 level would likely trigger further downside.

Where the Trade Setup Breaks

For traders positioning for a downside move, the critical invalidation point is straightforward: a sustained close above the $0.38 fair value gap. If CRV reclaims this imbalance, it would suggest that the bearish structure has lost conviction and a potential reversal could be in play. This makes $0.38 the ideal stop-loss level for short positions.

Mapping the Downside Targets

Should the bearish thesis play out, the weekly chart points to multiple waypoints on the decline. First, traders should watch the $0.329 zone as a potential short-term friction point. If that gives way, $0.298 becomes the next logical support. The ultimate target, however, is the $0.243 support level—where CRV found a floor from July through November 2024. This historical level represents significant psychological and technical support.

Market Context and Risk Factors

The current market backdrop adds weight to the bearish case. With Bitcoin facing pressure and broader crypto sentiment cooling, CRV’s underperformance relative to rising leverage activity suggests that new entrants are betting on further downside or that existing holders are cutting losses. The $0.40 current price level sits dangerously close to critical support zones, leaving little room for error in either direction.

Final Analysis

The combination of weakening momentum indicators, failed support levels, and a fair value gap overhead creates a compelling case for lower prices ahead. The increased speculative positioning without corresponding price strength is textbook bearish behavior. With clear technical invalidation points and defined target levels, the risk-reward setup favors sellers—at least until CRV proves otherwise by reclaiming the $0.38 imbalance.