S&P 500 hits 8000: JPMorgan bets on the artificial intelligence cycle and an even more aggressive Fed recovery

The largest American investment bank has just released a surprisingly bullish projection for the U.S. stock market in 2026. JPMorgan, through its strategy team led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, not only forecasts a conservative achievement of the S&P 500 at 7,500 points but highlights an even broader scenario where the index could potentially break through 8,000 points, a perspective that surpasses even Deutsche Bank’s previous estimates. This optimistic outlook is built on two fundamental pillars: the unstoppable continuation of the AI super cycle and a Federal Reserve monetary policy that remains more accommodative than expected.

When AI redraws the corporate earnings map

According to JPMorgan, we are not facing a simple rally but a structural transformation of the market. The current wave of AI investments has already pushed capital expenditure to record levels, while the leading companies benefiting from this technological revolution have captured an unprecedented market share. The report identifies these companies as “high quality”: firms characterized by robust profit margins, vigorous cash flow expansion, strict capital return policies, and contained credit risk profiles.

Here’s the surprising data for skeptics: the 30 largest AI-related companies listed in the S&P are trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 30 times, compared to 19 times for the rest of the index. But JPMorgan defends this valuation by highlighting that these companies offer “significantly higher earnings visibility, greater pricing power, lower leverage, and demonstrated consistency in shareholder value distribution.” Profit margin growth is expected to oscillate between 13% and 15% at least over the next two years, maintaining this outperformance dynamic.

The fear of obsolescence is fueling a global capital flow

Behind this concentration of investments lies a powerful psychological mechanism: the Fear of Becoming Obsolete (FOBO). Companies and governments, fearing to fall behind, are pouring massive capital into AI technologies. Initially confined to the tech sector and utilities, this momentum is now spreading to banking, healthcare, logistics, and infrastructure. This broadening of the AI investment base promises to extend the growth cycle well beyond the so-called “Magnificent Seven” of technology.

Meanwhile, capital expenditure by the top 30 AI stocks is expected to grow by 34% next year, indicating that the acceleration is far from complete. This dynamism is not limited to the tech sector alone: global strategic resources such as rare earths and uranium are positioned to benefit from this geopolitical and technical revaluation. With energy demand for AI data centers growing exponentially, uranium prices also serve as a beautiful indicator of the pace of this structural change.

The concentration market: winners and losers

However, JPMorgan does not hide the underlying tensions of this scenario. AI-driven growth is developing within an “economic bifurcation at K,” creating what analysts call a “winner-takes-all” market. In other words, while some companies will reap extraordinary profits, others will remain chronically behind. This phenomenon implies structural volatility: broad market sentiment indices remain vulnerable to significant oscillations, as repeatedly demonstrated throughout the current year and recent months.

The market configuration in 2026 is unlikely to differ much from the current one: an extreme concentration of value in dominant stocks, combined with increased vulnerability of secondary segments to macroeconomic fluctuations. This creates interesting tactical opportunities in sectors related to tariffs and trade, while stocks sensitive to deregulation—financial, real estate, energy—could benefit from a significant regulatory revival.

Where to look for opportunities: a sectoral roadmap

JPMorgan maintains an overweight position in the technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) sector, utilities, and defense. The banking and pharmaceutical sectors are expected to continue outperforming the broader market, while a neutral view is maintained on expanded financial and healthcare sectors. Deregulation is expected to provide new fuel for energy and real estate supply chains.

One often underestimated element by investors, according to the bank, is the earnings growth resulting from the combination of deregulation and the expansion of productivity gains generated by AI. These factors—along with a possible further reduction in rates by the Federal Reserve if inflation dynamics improve—could provide the additional fuel to push the S&P 500 beyond 8,000 points, turning what currently seems like a bold forecast into a realistically plausible scenario by 2026.