2026 Cryptocurrency Regulation Outlook: Can the Market Structure Act Break the Deadlock?

The keyword “rzut monetą” (coin toss) aptly summarizes the current uncertainty—the entire industry is betting on whether this bill will pass through Congress.

The Regulatory Window Is Narrowing

With less than two years until the midterm elections in 2026, a sense of anxiety is permeating Washington’s cryptocurrency policy circles. Despite the industry’s surprising victories on the regulatory front over the past year, the most important item on the “ultimate wishlist” remains unfulfilled—the comprehensive Market Structure Bill is still out of reach.

This legislation would fundamentally change the situation for tens of millions of crypto holders in the U.S., providing a unified legal framework for token issuers and trading intermediaries. However, multiple insiders have told us that despite seemingly positive signals, the bill is too complex, involving many politically sensitive issues, making it almost impossible to pass the Senate before the spring session (to accommodate the election season).

Regulators’ “Self-empowerment” Diminishes Legislative Urgency

Interestingly, some policymakers believe that the bold pro-crypto moves recently taken by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) actually reduce the urgency for legislation. These regulatory agencies are rewriting rules on their own, without waiting for Congress’s permission.

When asked whether the SEC needs additional authority from new cryptocurrency laws, Chair Paul Atkins showed surprisingly calm confidence. He pointed out that the 1933 Securities Act and the 1934 Securities Exchange Act already grant the SEC ample exemption powers, providing a very solid legal foundation for the agency’s actions.

Industry Concerns Over Delays

However, cautious policymakers do not share this optimistic outlook. They warn that if the Market Structure Bill fails to pass in 2026, the crypto industry will face not only short-term political instability but also the loss of a crucial confidence window—millions of skeptical investors still see crypto as a gray area, or even illegal.

A senior policy expert emphasized the importance of this point. He noted that the current public perception of cryptocurrencies as “questionable gambling” can only be truly reversed through a comprehensive legal framework. While the current administration can mitigate some issues through administrative measures, their effect is far less profound and lasting than a clear law.

The Battle of Two Approaches

Other key industry figures interpret the situation differently. They believe that since the SEC is pushing forward with a pro-industry safe harbor policy (expected to launch in January), the obsession with the Market Structure Bill may be overstated. This phenomenon has even been humorously dubbed by a senior figure as “Market Structure Bill Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder”—an overemphasis on legislative completion while ignoring the tangible victories regulators are gradually achieving.

This camp argues that rather than rushing to pass an imperfect bill, it’s better to give the legislation more time—even if that means waiting several more years. After all, the progress regulators can make now will be difficult for future administrations to overturn.

Where Are the Stakes?

The entire situation has fallen into a delicate coin-toss paradox: to continue pushing the Market Structure Bill, risking political failure; or to trust in regulators’ incremental reforms, bearing the long-term legal uncertainty. The answer may gradually emerge from the political agenda in 2026.