Strategy Discrepancy: Bitcoin Waits, Ethereum Takes the Lead — Analysis of Large Holder Behaviors

The cryptocurrency market signals a potential turning point, where the behavior of Bitcoin and Ethereum holders diverges dramatically. Long-term Bitcoin wallets, after six months of consistent selling, have finally reduced selling pressure, while Ethereum whales accelerate mass accumulation. This shift reflects a deep divergence in market expectations and indicates a shift in demand definition — where traditional demand understood as the desire to buy takes the form of micro-actions rather than macro for Bitcoin investors.

Has Bitcoin found a stabilization point? The first break in distribution since July 2024

Large Bitcoin holders — wallets holding BTC for over 155 days — are showing for the first time in half a year a willingness to pause selling. Data from CryptoQuant documents a reduction in balance from 14.8 million BTC in July to 14.3 million BTC in December, but recent weeks show a significant slowdown in this decline.

This change has profound implications. Investors who systematically unloaded positions over six months are now choosing to wait. This may signal:

• Reformulation of valuation: Current price levels perceived as sufficiently attractive
• Shift in demand: From active distribution to holding — a paradigm shift from “sellers” to “waiters”
• Fundamental change in sentiment: The first significant pause in selling pressure since the cycle began

History shows that when involved Bitcoin holders break the distribution, the market typically enters a consolidation or growth phase. Their control of ~75% of circulating BTC makes this signal significant for broader price trajectories.

Ethereum: acceleration of accumulation across all holder layers

At the same time, Ethereum exhibits a diametrically opposite phenomenon. Addresses holding over 1000 ETH — the classic whale definition — have accumulated about 120,000 ETH since December 26, 2024. This is one of the most intense buying periods in recent months.

The scale of this activity:

• Whale addresses control ~70% of circulating Ethereum
• The acceleration period has been unwavering since late December
• Segments holding 1,000–10,000 ETH show the most consistent purchases
• Demand definition in this context takes a specific form: readiness to reallocate capital despite market uncertainty

This acceleration suggests that institutional players or advanced traders are preparing for specific scenarios — perhaps related to upcoming protocol upgrades or increased activity in decentralized finance.

Comparative table: breakthrough strategies

Historical context: have we seen this before?

Analysis of previous market cycles reveals a similar pattern from 2020–2021. Back then, Ethereum whales accelerated accumulation several months before Bitcoin’s selling pressure decreased. Subsequently, both assets experienced significant appreciation.

This does not guarantee the scenario will repeat, but it provides a valuable precedent. It is linked to the current macroeconomic environment:

• Interest rates stabilizing at higher levels
• Cryptocurrency regulations evolving toward clarification rather than bans
• Institutional infrastructure in crypto maturing rapidly
• Demand definition for Bitcoin as a “digital safe” growing in inflationary conditions

What drives these behavioral changes?

Macroeconomics

The flood of interest rate hikes and prospects for their potential reduction in 2025 cause risk assets — including cryptocurrencies — to be overvalued. Long-term Bitcoin holders may be waiting for a new growth phase rather than further exiting positions during consolidation.

Technical changes

Ethereum undergoes regular upgrades — recently Dencun, previously Shanghai. Whales may be positioning ahead of upcoming catalysts, knowing that demand for ETH increases with each significant network upgrade.

Market structure

Institutional players now have tools for more advanced strategies: futures, options, staking. This fosters more sophisticated positioning — exactly what we observe.

Implications for prices and volatility

If these trends persist into Q1 2025:

1. Bitcoin: Reduced distribution may support price stability — less supply on the spot market, potentially higher equilibrium price
2. Ethereum: Continuous whale accumulation suggests upward pressure — demand definition here translates into active buying after each dip
3. Correlation: Divergence between BTC and ETH may deepen, offering potential diversification benefits

However, analysts point out that holder behavior is just one of many factors. Volume, derivatives positions, on-chain activity, and macro events remain key.

Frequently asked questions

What are the Bitcoin addresses holding BTC for over 155 days?
These are wallets purchased at least 155 days ago, belonging to investors who typically show higher fundamental engagement. Their behavior often precedes larger market moves.

Is 120,000 ETH a lot?
In the context of Ethereum — definitely. That’s about 0.1% of the total supply, but bought within such a short time window by one segment (whales) signals coordinated bullishness.

Does this mean Bitcoin will fall and Ethereum will rise?
Not directly. Reduced Bitcoin distribution supports stability, not necessarily growth. Ethereum may experience upward pressure, but it requires convergence with other technical factors.

What percentage of total Ethereum do whales control?
Addresses holding over 1,000 ETH control about 70% of circulating Ethereum and have been steadily increasing their share since December 2024.

Does history of previous cycles repeat?
History provides context, but markets evolve. 2024–2025 differs from 2020–2021 in infrastructure, regulation, and institutional gravitas. Monitoring not only behavior but the entire spectrum of fundamental data is essential.

Conclusion: signals at the beginning of 2025

The divergence in strategies between Bitcoin and Ethereum is one of the most fascinating anomalies in the crypto market. Long-term Bitcoin holders are halting sales, while Ethereum whales accelerate buying — both groups express something about valuation and future prospects.

Demand definition is splitting into two streams: passive (Bitcoin waits) and active (Ethereum buys). This suggests that sophisticated players are already positioning for various Q1 2025 scenarios.

Investors should monitor these metrics, but in conjunction with comprehensive fundamental, technical, and macroeconomic analysis. Knowing only what whales are doing is just the beginning.