XRP is brewing a rebound amid panic: while everyone is fleeing, institutions are quietly positioning themselves

When market sentiment hits rock bottom, retail investors rush to cut losses, and XRP seems to be caught in an unnoticed dilemma. But interestingly, it is precisely this extreme pessimism that often breeds the greatest market turning points. From technical analysis to capital flows and macro background, an unusual picture is unfolding.

Retail Panic vs. Institutional Accumulation: A Dialogue Between Two Worlds

Currently, XRP trading price is around $2.07, with a 24-hour decline of -0.62%. Market bearish sentiment reaches 46.73%, reflecting the retail market’s pessimism. However, as seasoned analyst Steph IS CRYPTO recently observed: “It is often at the moments when everyone is extremely disappointed and expects prices to continue falling that the biggest opportunities arise.”

Contrasting sharply with the collective exit of retail investors, XRP spot ETF has accumulated over $1 billion in institutional funds since its launch on November 13. This is no coincidence — it reflects a classic market phenomenon: when the public loses patience, savvy capital quietly accumulates.

Technical Indicators Reveal Pressure and Potential

From the daily chart, XRP is forming a key pattern evolution. Since the liquidation touch on October 10, the price has maintained an upward trendline and is building a higher bottom structure on the daily chart. This resonates with historical performance in 2017 and 2024 — during those periods, similar liquidation rebounds were followed by long accumulation phases, eventually erupting into strong rallies.

From a weekly perspective, XRP is in a price compression zone, squeezed between descending resistance lines and long-term support lines. The current key resistance is at $2.20 (close to the 50-day moving average), followed by $2.50 (where the 100-day moving average coincides with a significant trading cluster).

More importantly, liquidity distribution shows that most trading liquidity is concentrated above current levels. What does this imply? When the price finally breaks through the resistance zone, the market may face a sharp short covering — the so-called inverse bottom resonance phenomenon — where short positions that are temporarily beaten down turn into strong buying momentum upon breakout.

Silent Institutional Deployment

Behind the over $1 billion inflow into XRP spot ETF lies a detail: institutions are heavily accumulating XRP through over-the-counter (OTC) channels rather than buying on the open market. The logic is clear — to avoid pushing up the market price while establishing large positions at relatively low costs.

Once institutions complete their accumulation phase and need to turn to the open market for procurement, that will be the moment when prices truly take off. Historically, the transition of funds from OTC to market trading often accompanies nonlinear price surges.

Macro Background Duet

Recent US economic data send mixed signals: the unemployment rate has risen to 4.6%, and upcoming CPI data will be crucial in judging inflation trends. If the data confirms deflation expectations, risk assets will find support; otherwise, short-term pressure may persist.

More critically, the regulatory environment is shifting. Statements from SEC Chairman Paul Atkins, along with the Trump administration’s more inclusive stance toward cryptocurrencies, are building a more friendly policy framework for digital assets. This macro backdrop improvement provides important support for the medium-term performance of assets like XRP.

Extreme Reversal Point in Market Psychology

History repeatedly proves that the greatest opportunities often appear at the most despairing moments. When XRP community discussions are filled with “permanent bear market” expectations, retail holdings hit rock bottom, and market sentiment reaches its annual low — that is precisely the eve of a targeted breakout.

Whether you are a technical analyst or a fundamental investor, it’s important to notice: XRP is currently in a triple resonance moment — forming a bottom structurally, with institutional quietly deploying capital, and macro environment gradually improving. The coming weeks are critical for whether XRP can initiate a new upward cycle.

When everyone is abandoning an asset, it is often the starting point for smart money to deploy. For participants who can see through market sentiment fluctuations, the current panic may not be a risk but an opportunity for mispriced gains.