Gold on the rise: the rally above $4310 marks a new bullish phase

The yellow metal market continues its upward run with gold prices reaching new all-time highs on Friday, surpassing $4,310 per ounce during the European session. This marks the fourth consecutive day of gains, with daily increases exceeding 0.7%, while the weekly rally in gold is expected to settle above 2.5%.

Federal Reserve’s Stimuli Drive Safe-Haven Demand

Supporting the bullish movement in gold is the recent maneuver by the Federal Reserve, which, after last week’s rate cut, has not ruled out further reductions in 2026. Although official projections indicate only one cut next year, derivatives market traders continue to price in two easing interventions.

The US central bank’s accommodative policy creates a favorable environment for precious metals, which do not generate yields in their traditional setup. Additionally, the announcement of starting, as early as this Friday, monthly purchases of $40 billion in government bonds aims to rebuild banking system reserves. Furthermore, the dollar is in the third consecutive week of depreciation, making gold more competitive for international buyers.

Technical Context and Analytical Outlook

Dilin Wu, strategist at Jishi Research, emphasized that the structural trajectory of gold maintains significant room for expansion. According to the expert, while upside surprises in December or January inflation data could temporarily contract prices, a resurgence in inflationary pressures, ongoing geopolitical risks, and the Federal Reserve’s continued accommodative stance could sustain the upward trend in the medium term.

Data from the World Gold Council highlight a particularly significant phenomenon: inflows into gold ETFs increased in eleven of the twelve months of the year, with May being the only exception. Hebe Chen, an analyst at Vantage Markets, interprets these data as signals of a solid support base: “The sustained demand from central banks, renewed capital inflows into passive instruments, expansionary monetary policies, and the geopolitical uncertainty environment converge to provide a robust macroeconomic foundation for gold’s rally, which could extend until 2026.”

Next Targets and Volatility Dynamics

Fxstreet analysts identify breaking the psychological threshold of $4,300 as a catalyst toward the next resistance level, located around $4,328–$4,330 per ounce. A consolidation and subsequent upward breakout could push gold to challenge the October high, around $4,380.

In the scenario of breaching the psychological barrier of $4,400, specialists would see a significant change in the technical landscape, potentially fueling further upward movement originating from the October monthly low.

Silver Accelerates Toward New Highs

Alongside the gold rally, silver is also gaining momentum. Silver prices approached historic highs on Thursday, surpassing the $64 per ounce level, with daily increases exceeding 1%. Ajay Kedia of Kedia Commodities attributes this dynamic to a combination of ETF inflows, physical supply shortages, and expectations of further rate cuts. From a technical perspective, Kedia notes that silver has completed a breakout pattern and could target the $75 per ounce level.

Sucden Financial analysts, while recognizing that silver benefits from speculative dynamics related to a narrative of structural supply deficit, warn that the underlying dynamic remains primarily governed by gold’s trajectory, which in turn is linked to broader monetary prospects and real yields. Their view suggests that, barring further significant dollar depreciation, short-term gains in gold could face limitations.