Bitcoin at a critical crossroads: Will the market choose the bull or bear path? Market DNA patterns reveal the answer

The Bitcoin market is entering a week full of tension. The current price at $91,84 USD remains within a narrow consolidation zone, but the real dynamics are playing out outside the scene – in macroeconomic data and Fed decisions. This article discusses why this week is crucial for determining BTC’s direction in the coming months.

Last week: Volatility as a profit tool

In the previous period, the Bitcoin market showed a typical “V-shaped rebound after a sharp decline” structure. The week started with a dramatic breakthrough of the $89,000 USD level – a key dividing line between bulls and bears. The price fell to a low of $83,814 USD, representing a 4.53% loss in one day.

However, what’s fascinating is the speed of demand reactivation. Within the next 48 hours, Bitcoin recovered all losses and reached a weekly high of $94,172 USD – an 8.18% increase. This amplitude of 12.36% between the lowest and highest prices is not chaos – it’s an opportunity for traders using precise models.

The market closed almost unchanged (growth 0.03%), forming a doji candle with long shadows. The trading volume of $13.429 billion USD indicated systematic capital rotation, not panic.

Anatomy of success: How quantitative models work in reality

A systematic trading approach relies on three pillars: momentum models, market sentiment analysis, and digital flow monitoring.

On the weekly interval: The momentum model indicates a tough situation for bulls. Both momentum lines are below the zero line, with the white line not returning above it for three consecutive weeks. Negative energy (bars) begins to shrink, suggesting weakening selling pressure – but bears still control the narrative. The sentiment index at levels 52.08 and 33.53 remains neutral, indicating no clear direction.

On the daily interval: The situation is more promising. Both momentum lines are moving upward, approaching the zero axis. The energetic bars are shrinking, indicating that the bullish rebound momentum is gradually weakening – this is a warning, not a positive signal. The sentiment model remains neutral (21 and 32 on the scales), suggesting no dominance by either side.

These market DNA data speak clearly: Bitcoin is in a transitional phase where any macroeconomic impulse can change the direction.

Price structure for the coming days: Three decision zones

I predict the market will oscillate within three defined zones: 94,200–91,000–87,500–83,500 USD. Currently, the price fluctuates between 91,000–87,000 USD – a narrow zone that will quickly choose a direction.

Resistances: First at 91,000 USD, second at 94,000–96,500 USD (note that the weekly maximum of 94,172 USD stopped just 172 USD below this zone – level precision confirmed by the price), third at 98,500–100,000 USD.

Supports: First at 85,500–87,500 USD, second at 83,500 USD, key around 80,000 USD. If 87,500 USD is successfully broken, the market may test deep support DNA in the 83,500 USD zone.

Two trading paths: Preparing for every scenario

Scenario A – Consolidation with an upward rebound:
If the price rises and tests the 91,000–94,200 USD zone with resistance signals, open a 15% short position. If the rebound reaches 98,500 USD, add another 15%. Stop loss above 100,000 USD. At the first support and defense signal, reduce the position by 50%, and at the second support, close all.

Scenario B – Break down and testing the bottom:
If the price breaks below 87,500 USD downward, wait for the 83,500–80,000 USD zone (where we look for a bottom signal) and open a 15% long position. Stop loss below 80,000 USD. Close on rebounds to 87,500–88,000 USD.

Risk management: After achieving 1% profit, move the stop loss to the break-even level. After 2%, move it to 1% profit level. Each additional 1% profit prompts us to shift the stop loss by 1% – this is dynamic capital protection.

Fed week: A turning point for all risk assets

This is not an ordinary week. The global financial market awaits the Fed meeting, the update of the dot plot chart, and Powell’s speech. The market almost unanimously expects a rate cut in December, but the real catalyst lies in the easing path for 2025.

Hawkish scenario: If the dot plot suggests only 0–1 cuts in 2025, the market will quickly adjust expectations. Bond yields will rise, the dollar will strengthen, and risk assets, including Bitcoin, will come under pressure. BTC may test the $85,000 USD zone.

Dovish scenario: If the dot plot indicates at least 2 cuts in 2025, the easing cycle will accelerate. Risk assets will rebound, and BTC could return above $90,000 USD and continue rising.

Other data this week (US JOLTS, Chinese CPI, UK GDP) are just noise compared to the amplitude of Fed decisions. Powell’s emphasis on “persistent inflation” or “restrictive policy” will increase volatility.

Capital outlook: Silence before the decision

Institutional capital has entered a “quiet zone.” Bitcoin failed to return above $90,000 USD over the weekend, but trading volume decreased, indicating no panic. Retail investors are calm, large entities are reducing exposure ahead of the “super week of central banks.”

What supports the bullish structure are macroeconomic fundamentals: the labor market is weakening, inflation is falling, and the new Fed chair has a dovish track record. All this increases the likelihood of a easing cycle in the medium term – which is why Bitcoin remains high.

Key conclusion

This week will not be about price – it will be about scaling the future. The dot plot chart and Fed stance will directly influence the medium-term BTC trend. If the signals are dovish, the market may experience a rebound by year-end. If hawkish, we face a short-term correction, but the medium-term bullish structure will remain intact.

For traders: volatility this week is not chaos – it’s new valuations. Every trade should be preceded by a clear entry plan, stop loss, and exit. The market DNA shows that the market is choosing its path – whether it will be $80,000 USD or $98,500 USD depends on what the Fed says.