Bitcoin rebound signals emerge? Trader Rastani points out 75% rebound probability being overlooked

As Bitcoin pulls back from recent highs, the market is filled with a pessimistic atmosphere. Analysts are widely speculating about a bear market, claiming that the true bottom will not appear until 2026. However, trader Alessio Rastani has identified a rebound opportunity from a technical perspective that most people are overlooking.

According to Rastani’s chart analysis, this downward pattern has occurred multiple times before, and historical data shows there is about a 75% probability of a significant rebound afterward. Many traders interpret such patterns as bearish signals, but Rastani believes this is a false market expectation.

Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators in Tandem

Currently, Bitcoin’s market sentiment is extremely fearful. According to real-time data, the bearish sentiment stands at 46.73%. In this extreme emotional state, technical indicators show clear oversold signs. Rastani emphasizes that the mismatch between sentiment and technicals often signals a turning point.

He also points out that the trend after a death cross provides an important message: price action explains more than time cycles. Relying solely on bear market cycle theory can lead to misconceptions.

“Blow-off Top” Not Yet Seen, Top May Not Be Confirmed

Rastani presents another key point — Bitcoin may not have formed the typical “blow-off top” characteristic seen in past market peaks. This suggests that the recent high may not be the true top of this cycle. Combining this with strong correlations to the stock market, he believes the upside potential is seriously underestimated.

Currently, Bitcoin is hovering around $91.84K, and the market is in a state of extreme skepticism. But from Rastani’s years of trading experience, this is precisely the moment for patient traders to position themselves.