Bitcoin bear market has become a fact: from market structure collapse to lurking opportunities

The current Bitcoin price is reported at 91.84K, up 1.38% over the past 24 hours, but this rebound cannot hide deeper weakness—the market structure has already clearly reversed, and bearish signals have resonated across on-chain data, capital flows, and technical indicators.

Triple Confirmation: Why This Is More Than Just a Pullback

The conditions for entering a bear market are not solely based on price decline but on the simultaneous appearance of three key features: deteriorating demand, institutional capital outflows, and the collapse of long-term support structures. Currently, all these conditions are in place.

Technical Breakdown—Support Turns Resistance

Bitcoin has decisively broken below the 200-day and 365-day moving averages, which have traditionally marked the bull-bear boundary. More concerning are:

• Every rebound near these moving averages faces strong selling, indicating that previous support has turned into strong resistance
• Market prices are approaching the realized price levels of short-term holders; a breakdown here means recent entrants are all at a loss, which can trigger panic selling
• Weekly and monthly charts show a clear “lower highs, lower lows” downtrend, with the 200-week moving average shifting from support to resistance

Institutional Retreat—From Inflows to Outflows

The most significant shift in this cycle occurs at the institutional level:

• Spot Bitcoin ETF flows have reversed from continuous net inflows at the start of 2025 to net outflows, reflecting not only profit-taking but also a shift from risk appetite to risk aversion
• In a high-interest-rate environment, government bonds and money market funds regain attractiveness, with risk-free yields of 5%+ competing heavily against Bitcoin’s non-yielding nature
• Institutional investors are rebalancing portfolios, reducing exposure to volatile assets

Stablecoin Explosion—Firepower or Flight?

Market observations reveal a paradox: Bitcoin’s dominance is waning, yet funds are not flowing into altcoins but into stablecoins. Market cap has swollen to a new all-time high, which is a double-edged sword:

• On one hand, it indicates capital exiting the crypto ecosystem
• On the other hand, this accumulation of “dry powder” on the sidelines is a typical feature of bear market bottoms—investors holding cash in anticipation; once sentiment reverses, this capital could fuel the next bull run

On-Chain Activity Enters Hibernation

When prices lag behind on-chain fundamentals, indicators often give early warnings.

Trading Volume Plummets and Miner Dilemmas

During past euphoric periods, mempool congestion, high transaction fees, and lucrative miner revenues were common. Now, mempools are empty, transactions are quick and cheap, and the total USD value settled daily on the network has significantly declined—indicating whales and institutions are observing and reluctant to transfer large BTC amounts.

More dangerously, at the miner level:

• Hash rate remains relatively high, but falling Bitcoin prices severely squeeze miner profits, with hash price at historic lows
• Transaction fee revenue has plummeted, forcing smaller, less efficient miners to shut down or sell off inventory, further increasing market selling pressure

Retail Investors Have Left

Daily active addresses have fallen back to early cycle levels, and the number of newly created non-zero addresses has sharply declined. This metric is crucial because it reflects adoption and participation—“crypto tourists” and retail speculators have exited, leaving only steadfast long-term holders (Hodlers).

While this clears out speculative bubbles, it also removes the sustained buying pressure needed to support high prices. Without new user growth, prices will struggle to find upward momentum.

But the Bear Market Is Also a Fake Opportunity

True wealth is not created in bull markets but built during bear markets. When the market is all red, it’s the moment for strategic investors to calmly accumulate.

Why Downside Is Limited

• Price has fallen from the all-time high of 126.08K to 91.84K, a drop of over 30%
• When declines reach 70-80% (common in historical bear markets), downside is already very limited, while the upside potential is enormous
• This is the essence of “asymmetric risk-reward”—small risk, large potential return

Tactical Advice

1. Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) Is Better Than Timing In a downtrend, systematic investing becomes a powerful tool. Avoid trying to predict the absolute bottom (catching falling knives); instead, buy in batches to lower the average cost.

2. Focus on Builders and Innovators Projects that continue coding, updating products, and advancing development during bear markets often become leaders in the next cycle. At low valuations, these projects can deliver outsized gains.

3. Manage Cash Flow Carefully Ensure you are not forced to sell coins at the bottom to cover living expenses—this is essential to survive the cycle.

The Historical Endings and Fundamentals Remain Unchanged

2014, 2018, and 2022 all played out similar scenarios: markets cleared leverage, eliminated the uncommitted, and reset fundamentals. Each bear market ultimately gave way to a new bull run.

More importantly, despite media claims that “Bitcoin is dead,” the network still produces a new block every ten minutes. The core fundamentals of decentralization, censorship resistance, and scarcity have not changed—in fact, they are becoming even more valuable amid global uncertainties.

The current market structure is not a warning but an invitation for the patient. Those who sow in this winter will reap in the next spring.