$4,500 is not the end; the gold of 2026 is entering a "faith-driven market"

In the first full trading week of 2026, spot gold once again demonstrated a strong breakout, with weekly gains approaching 4%, reaching a high of 4516, just one step away from the last year's peak of 4549. On the surface, the soft December non-farm payroll data in the US (only 50,000 new jobs) acted as a catalyst for short-term risk aversion sentiment. However, it is noteworthy that the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell back to 4.4% during the same period—this "mixed signals" employment report led the market to a clear consensus: the Federal Reserve's rate cut window in January is essentially closed, but medium- to long-term rate cut expectations have not dissipated; instead, they have officially entered a "policy hesitation period." Historically, this phase is precisely when gold performs most strongly.

The more core driving logic lies in the fact that at the beginning of 2026, global geopolitical risks are entering a period of concentrated eruptions: domestic turmoil in Iran continues to escalate, the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains deadlocked, US-China relations suddenly change, and Trump once again made remarks about "controlling Greenland," triggering strong European backlash. A series of events not only increase uncertainty about the US dollar's credibility but also shake the stability of the existing international order. "De-dollarization" has accelerated from previous conceptual discussions to actual actions, with central banks and global funds initiating a new wave of gold allocation.

Institutional consensus on the bullish outlook has become highly consolidated: Metals Focus explicitly states that in 2026, gold prices are expected to challenge the 5000 USD mark; the latest survey by Kitco shows that nearly 90% of professionals maintain a bullish stance. It is worth emphasizing that the core logic of the current gold market has undergone a qualitative change—it is no longer simply a "policy game" betting on Fed rate cuts, but a "trust vote" by global capital on the stability of the existing order.

In the short term, this week’s US CPI, PPI, and retail sales data will be the focus of market attention and may trigger phase fluctuations in gold prices. But as long as global geopolitical risks remain unresolved and the trust crisis in the US dollar's credibility and international order persists, the core allocation logic of gold will not change. For the current market, $4,500 is not the end; $5,000 may just be the next psychological threshold to break through.