Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations are adjusted again: a 25bp cut in June and September, with recession risk lowered to 20%

【Crypto World】Latest news, Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast for the Federal Reserve’s policy path. The investment bank now expects a rate cut in June and September this year, each by 25 basis points, which is a delay from their previous expectations of rate cuts in March and June.

More importantly, Goldman Sachs has lowered the target for the federal funds rate to the 3%-3.25% range by the end of 2026. This indicates that there is still considerable room for future liquidity releases. Additionally, they have revised the probability of a recession from 30% down to 20%, which is an interesting change—suggesting an improved outlook on economic resilience.

For the crypto market, adjustments in the Fed’s policy expectations often influence capital flows and the valuation of risk assets. This forecast provides the market with a relatively clear signal: the rate cut cycle is still underway, just with a different pace. Continued attention should be paid to official data and inflation trends to see whether actual developments align with expectations.