XRP's open interest in the past 24 hours reached $43 billion. Historical patterns suggest a major turning point is imminent.

As 2025 approaches its conclusion, the deep dynamics of the market are quietly shifting. Although price action appears calm, multiple overlooked signals are converging, indicating that this wave of market movement may be closer to a critical turning point than surface appearances suggest.

Subtle Changes in Open Interest

XRP, as one of the top five cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, has recently attracted close attention from traders. According to the latest data, the total open interest for XRP over the past 24 hours reached $343 million, a 0.6% increase week-over-week. While the increase seems modest, during this year-end period of low trading activity, this sustained growth is quite significant. The expansion of open interest typically reflects changes in market participation and may signal traders’ adjusted expectations for subsequent price movements.

Historical Cycles and XRP’s Patterns

Crypto market analysts have identified an intriguing historical pattern in XRP. Every time XRP falls below the 50-week moving average and remains below that level for 50 to 84 days, a strong rally tends to follow. This pattern has been validated across multiple cycles:

In the 2017 cycle, XRP traded below the 50-week SMA for 70 days before rising 211%; in 2021, the rebound was even faster, returning above the moving average in just 49 days and subsequently gaining 70%; the most recent 2024 cycle was the most intense—XRP stayed below the 50-week SMA for a full 84 days, ultimately surging by 850%.

Signals in the Current Window

Notably, XRP has now remained below the 50-week moving average for 70 days, precisely within the critical time window historically associated with trend reversals. This timing coincides with several past pivotal moments, hinting that the market may be accumulating momentum for a rebound.

On the technical side, volatility contraction, rare alignment of bullish and bearish positions, and emerging signs of technical fatigue are paving the way for potential large swings. Although these indicators can be masked by simple price movements, their simultaneous appearance enhances the credibility of a possible reversal signal.

Market Watch and Awaiting Change

For XRP traders, the current landscape is filled with both uncertainty and opportunity. The slow growth in open interest indicates that the market is gradually gathering strength, while the historical cycle benchmarks remind investors that this specific time window has repeatedly foreshadowed dramatic price actions. Regardless of future developments, market participants should closely monitor subsequent technical signals, as reversal cues often begin to form before the price actually initiates a move.