BTC hovers around $92,000, is the super cycle about to start? Three major signals revealed

Bitcoin is currently at a critical inflection point. As of the latest data, BTC is trading around $91,710, down nearly 30% from its all-time high, yet it remains highly anticipated under the consensus of bulls. Discussions around the “super cycle” continue to heat up in early 2026, supported not only by market participants’ optimistic expectations but also by tangible signals such as improved policy environments and ongoing institutional accumulation. However, the premise of all this is whether BTC can hold key support levels and restart its upward trajectory.

Key Support Levels Under Testing

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently in a battle at several critical levels. According to recent analysis, the two-year simple moving average (SMA) support is around $84,500, serving as an important “lifeline.” If this level is broken, Bitcoin could face deeper downside risks.

Stronger support comes from liquidity distribution. In the $86,000 to $90,000 range, liquidity is relatively concentrated, indicating strong market absorption capacity in this zone. Below that, around $81,000, there is also significant liquidity accumulation, forming multiple defensive lines.

From a medium- to long-term indicator perspective, Bitcoin’s one-year price change is currently about -4.5%. This figure is in a relatively rare range historically and does not fully confirm a bear market structure. The key market observation is whether this negative value can turn positive again.

Three Major Drivers of the Super Cycle Heating Up

Positive Policy Environment Signals

According to recent news, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has removed “crypt assets” from its 2026 priority risk list. This seemingly technical adjustment actually signals a clear policy stance—regulatory environment is marginally improving. Binance founder Zhao Changpeng responded by saying that “the super cycle may be brewing,” partly attributing this to the improving regulatory environment in the U.S.

Continued Institutional Accumulation

The market is not driven solely by retail sentiment. Recent reports indicate that U.S. banks are significantly increasing their Bitcoin holdings. Wells Fargo has just purchased $383 million worth of Bitcoin. Zhao Changpeng commented, “When retail is panic-selling, U.S. banks are continuously accumulating Bitcoin.” This reflects contrarian actions by institutional investors during market panic, which historically often signals important bottoming.

High Community Sentiment Consensus

From an emotional perspective, the market remains optimistic. Community voting sentiment indicators show that over 80% of participants still hold a bullish outlook on Bitcoin’s medium-term trend. Additionally, Michael Saylor (founder of MicroStrategy) stated during a live broadcast that the Bitcoin market will no longer experience “winter.” These viewpoints further reinforce market expectations.

Historical Cycle Reference Value

A widely circulated market view is that Bitcoin has experienced brief negative annual returns on the eve of bull markets, followed by strong rebounds. The cycle low in March 2020 is a typical example, after which BTC achieved over 16 times gains within just over a year.

The current -4.5% annual return, while negative, has not reached extreme levels typical of historical bear markets. This provides an important reference: if history repeats, the rebound potential could be substantial.

Key Conditions for BTC Rebound

Based on current bullish market views, Bitcoin needs to meet the following conditions to initiate a new upward trend:

• Annual return turns positive again, confirming a bottom structure
• Hold the key support at the two-year SMA of $84,500
• Break through the psychological milestone of $100,000
• Policy environment remains friendly
• Continuous inflow of institutional funds

Among these, holding support and reversing the annual return to positive are the most fundamental conditions. Once these are met, the market may have stronger confirmation of the “super cycle” expectation.

Summary

Bitcoin is currently at an important crossroads. On one hand, signals such as improved policy environment, institutional accumulation, and high community sentiment support the “super cycle” outlook; on the other hand, testing of key technical support levels and the need for annual return reversal set clear conditions for the market.

While Zhao Changpeng has also admitted that “the super cycle may be imminent, but we could also be wrong,” this cautious attitude actually enhances the credibility of his view. The price performance in the coming weeks will be crucial—if BTC can hold current support and gradually move higher, the super cycle discussion will shift from speculation to reality; otherwise, phase correction risks should be considered. During this observation window, monitoring the stability of support levels and progress beyond $100,000 will be key to understanding subsequent trends.