Can XRP Hold Its Ground? Three Critical Signals Flashing Red Before Year-End

XRP is struggling at the moment, down roughly 1.2% in the last day. Looking at the bigger picture over seven days, the decline deepens to around 2.4%, positioning the token significantly below recent highs. The current price action reveals XRP trapped inside a descending triangle—a chart pattern notorious for triggering sharp moves. While a breakdown hasn’t materialized yet, multiple market indicators are converging in ways that demand serious attention.

When Buyers and Sellers Align (And It’s Not Good)

Here’s what’s happening beneath the surface. Money Flow Index (MFI) is telling a troubling story: during late December, as XRP’s price climbed, the MFI actually moved lower. This divergence signals that retail participants are dumping into every rally instead of supporting the move. Rather than accumulating weakness, they’re exiting positions, which anchors the price near the triangle’s lower support zone.

The picture darkens when examining HODL Waves data on long-term holders. Between November and late December, wallets holding XRP for over two decades saw their ownership drop from 14.26% to just 5.66% of total supply. These aren’t day traders—they’re legacy conviction holders. Their exit simultaneously with retail weakness creates a dangerous double-sided pressure.

Capital Flows Reveal the Uncomfortable Truth

Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) paints the third warning sign. This metric measures whether large capital is flowing into or out of an asset relative to volume and price movement. For XRP, CMF remains deeply negative and sliding along a descending trendline. Translation: even when price action looks flat, substantial buying pressure is evaporating. Supply is outpacing demand, and there’s no relief signal emerging yet.

Where XRP Must Hold—Or Face Serious Trouble

Currently, XRP is sandwiched between $1.90 and $1.81. The $1.90 level, which broke in late December, remains unclaimed. Bulls need to reclaim $1.90 and push toward $1.99 to establish any meaningful reversal. That move would test the triangle’s upper boundary and offer a technical lifeline.

The bearish scenario is clearer. If $1.81 cracks, XRP exits the descending triangle with a confirmed breakdown. From there, support erodes toward $1.68 and potentially $1.52 if selling pressure intensifies. Nothing guarantees this outcome, but the market hasn’t shown a counter-signal that would derail this risk.

The convergence of retail distribution, long-term holder exits, and collapsing capital inflows creates an environment where XRP must fight just to maintain its range. Without fresh buying catalysts, the path of least resistance leans bearish.