Bitcoin at the "graduated bear" level? RSI signals may determine the next move

In recent weeks, Bitcoin ($BTC) has undergone a significant correction phase, with the price dropping from a high to $90.90K, recording a -3.88% decline over the past year. However, the big question that the investment community is asking is not whether Bitcoin will continue to decline, but whether this is a sign of a “graduating bear” phase or the beginning of a deeper downturn.

What do the numbers indicate?

In the past three months, Bitcoin has lost about 20% of its value, equivalent to $21,500. Its performance over the past year also shows a negative trend, approximately -3.88% from the previous peak. On the surface, these figures seem like a clear warning signal. But according to analysts at CryptoQuant, including Axel Adler Jr., the real picture is much more complex.

These experts emphasize that a 20% correction is not uncommon for Bitcoin. The issue lies in whether this correction is healthy or the start of a true bear market. The answer does not lie in the price itself but in deeper technical indicators.

RSI: The key indicator for the coming months

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is becoming the focus of attention. Currently, Bitcoin’s monthly RSI stands at 56.5 – a significant level. For the first time since 2022, it has fallen below the 12-month moving average (SMA) of 67.3. Even more concerning is that RSI is only about two points away from the 4-year SMA level of 58.7.

Past instances when RSI broke this level – in 2018 and 2022 – signaled deeper downturns. This indicates that Bitcoin is now at a critical crossroads.

Q1 2026 will be the verdict

According to Adler, the first quarter of 2026 (Q1 2026) will be a decisive period. If RSI remains above 55–58, investors can expect the potential for recovery to be maintained. This would be a sign of a market “graduating from the bear” – meaning the final stages of a decline before the market begins to recover.

However, if RSI continues to fall below 55, it will be a clear warning of a deeper downturn, potentially lasting longer and more severe than recent corrections.

Market context and investment strategy

The average price of Bitcoin over the past three months ($101,500) and for the entire year ($101,800) are nearly the same. This indicates that most selling pressure has concentrated in recent weeks, while the market is currently trying to stabilize and form a new bottom.

For investors, the message is clear: the coming months will be a true test. Monitoring RSI and other technical indicator levels will help determine whether Bitcoin is in a “graduating bear” phase or entering a deeper bear market.