Silver's 144% Rally in 2025: What Markets May Expect This Year

The Setup: Why Precious Metals Surged

The past year created a perfect storm for precious metals. Mounting government deficits, currency concerns, and geopolitical uncertainty pushed investors toward safe-haven assets. Gold climbed 64% in 2025, but silver—its industrial-heavy cousin—achieved an even more impressive 144% gain.

The difference? Supply dynamics. While gold primarily serves as a wealth store, silver does the heavy lifting across electronics, solar panels, and manufacturing. This dual nature—scarcity combined with practical utility—amplified its rally.

Supply Constraints Acting as a Catalyst

Here’s where things get interesting. China, the world’s second-largest silver exporter, recently imposed export restrictions starting January 1, 2026. The stated goal is protecting its domestic electronics manufacturing supply chain, but the move simultaneously creates leverage in trade negotiations with the U.S. and Europe.

The restriction sparked fears of a global silver shortage, sending prices to record highs in recent months. On the flip side, silver is approximately eight times more abundant than gold in annual production, which keeps it more affordable and accessible.

Historical Context Tempers Expectations

Before getting too optimistic, consider the long-term picture. Over the past 50 years, silver has delivered an average compound annual return of just 5.9%—far below last year’s extraordinary gains.

The metal also carries significant volatility risk. Historically, silver has dropped 70-90% following powerful rallies. Remarkably, it didn’t achieve a new record high for 14 consecutive years before 2025, highlighting how unpredictable its price action can be.

The Outlook for 2026

The bull case for precious metals remains sound given ongoing fiscal concerns and currency devaluation risks. The U.S. national debt hit a record $38.6 trillion, with trillion-dollar annual deficits projected to continue. This environment typically supports higher precious metal prices.

However, expecting another triple-digit percentage gain in silver would be unrealistic. China could reverse its export restrictions at any time, fundamentally altering supply dynamics. Investors should target more modest returns aligned with historical averages rather than repeat performances of 2025.

A Measured Approach

Those interested in silver exposure should maintain a long-term investment horizon to weather inevitable volatility. The metal serves best as a portfolio diversifier rather than a source of rapid gains. Whether through physical holdings or exposure vehicles, patience and realistic expectations remain essential.