Soybean Prices Show Strength Amid Mixed Export Signals

Soybean futures are displaying notable upward momentum during today’s session, with contract prices climbing 2 to 5¾ cents. The nationally averaged cash price of soybeans has jumped 3 cents to reach $9.91, according to cmdtyView data. Derivative markets are equally bullish—soybean meal futures advanced 30 cents to hit $1.20 on Friday, while soy oil contracts gained 30 to 40 points throughout the trading day.

Delivery Activity and Export Dynamics

Settlement activity remained active overnight, with 84 deliveries recorded against January contracts. Breaking this down: 52 deliveries were issued for soybean meal futures, while 166 were processed against January soybean oil. A significant private export transaction moved 198,000 MT of soybeans to undisclosed international buyers this morning, as reported by USDA data.

Export Sales Momentum Under Pressure

The USDA Export Sales report reveals a more complicated picture for soybean demand. As of January 1st, cumulative export sale commitments stand at 28.576 million metric tons (MMT)—a figure that only represents 29% of the corresponding period from last year’s 2024/25 season. More concerning, current commitments lag behind USDA projections at just 64% of the agency’s full-year export forecast, falling short of the typical 82% pace observed historically.

Physical shipments tell an even weaker story. Current shipment volumes have declined 45% year-over-year to 16.347 MMT, representing merely 37% of USDA’s forecast and trailing the conventional average of 57%. This slowdown underscores lingering headwinds in international demand.

Chinese Stockpiling and Market Catalysts

Adding to the export narrative, Sinograin—China’s state-controlled grain reserve agency—has announced an auction of 1.1 MMT of previously imported soybeans (sourced between 2022-2025) scheduled for January 13th. This move signals potential reprieve for struggling export values.

Looking ahead, the USDA’s monthly report is set for Monday release. Market analysts expect the 2025/26 soybean ending stocks projection to reach 295 million bushels, reflecting a modest 5 mbu month-over-month increase per Bloomberg survey consensus. This data could prove pivotal for price direction.

Contract Pricing Overview

Current futures positioning shows:

• Jan 26 Soybeans: $10.52¾, up 5¾ cents
• Nearby Cash Rate: $9.91, up 3 cents
• Mar 26 Soybeans: $10.64, up 2¾ cents
• May 26 Soybeans: $10.75¾, up 2½ cents

The price of soybeans remains supported by technical strength, though export sales momentum continues to lag seasonal norms—a tension that could shape near-term volatility.