Soybean Market Shows Marginal Recovery Amid Slowing Export Pace and Rising Chinese Demand

Soybean futures concluded the week on a tentative note, with front-month contracts posting modest gains. January delivery closed at $10.48 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents, while March futures settled at $10.62 1/2, advancing 1 1/4 cents. The underlying cash market demonstrated parallel weakness, with the national average cash price rising only 1 1/2 cents to $9.90 3/4. March contracts outperformed weekly, gaining 16 3/4 cents.

Export Commitments Trail Historical Pace

The USDA export sales report revealed concerning trends in shipment momentum. As of January 1st, cumulative export commitments reached 28.576 million metric tons—a marginal increase representing just 29% of the equivalent period from the prior marketing year. More troubling, actual shipments have deteriorated sharply, totaling 16.347 MMT and lagging 45% year-over-year. This represents only 37% of USDA’s full-year forecast, trailing the typical 57% average pace at this stage of the season.

Chinese Buying Patterns Provide Market Support

Despite sluggish export execution, Chinese purchasing activity injected support into prices. According to market sources, China acquired an additional 10 cargoes of US soybeans on Friday for April-May delivery. A private export transaction of 198,000 MT to unspecified destinations was also recorded by the USDA. These developments signal sustained Chinese demand even as China’s state-owned Sinograin prepares an auction of 1.1 MMT of previously imported soybeans (2022-2025 inventory) scheduled for January 13.

Soybean Meal and Oil Post Stronger Performances

Soybean meal futures diverged from the modest tone in the bean complex, with January contracts declining 40 cents while other months advanced a dime to $1.80. March soybean meal gained $7.70 for the week, reflecting independent supply-demand dynamics in the crush market. Soy oil futures demonstrated more consistent strength, with March up 39 points weekly and day-trade gains of 15 to 23 points.

Speculative Positioning Retreats as Uncertainty Builds

Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed that speculative traders reduced net long positions by 26,845 contracts in the week ending January 6. This pullback left the net long at an 11-week low of 57,717 contracts across futures and options—suggesting trader caution ahead of key supply reports. The market now awaits the Quarterly Grain Stocks report due Monday, with analysts projecting soybean inventories of 3.25 billion bushels on December 1. Estimates range from 2.95 to 3.445 billion bushels, reflecting considerable uncertainty about stock availability.

May Futures Maintain Upward Tilt

May soybean contracts closed at $10.74 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents, maintaining a modest premium to nearer months and suggesting limited near-term supply anxiety despite the sluggish export pace. The marginal nature of these gains underscores a market in transition between old-crop supply concerns and new-crop uncertainty.