Silver's Current Rally: Where Does Today's Spot Price Stand Against Historical Peaks?

The Spot Price of Silver Today—Breaking Through Key Resistance

Silver has been on an impressive run in 2024, with the spot price of silver reaching US$34.20 during October trading—marking its highest level in over a decade. This represents a surge of more than 48 percent from the year’s start, signaling renewed investor confidence in the precious metal as both a safe-haven asset and an industrial commodity. The question on many traders’ minds: how does today’s spot price compare to silver’s historic extremes, and what’s driving this current momentum?

Understanding How Silver Is Priced and Traded

To contextualize the current spot price of silver, it’s useful to understand the mechanics behind silver trading. The metal trades globally in dollars and cents per ounce across major financial hubs including New York, London, and Hong Kong. London serves as the epicenter for physical silver transactions, while the NYMEX’s COMEX division dominates the futures market.

Investors access silver through multiple channels. Physical bullion purchases—bars, coins, and rounds—trade on the spot market at prevailing ounce prices with immediate delivery. Alternatively, the futures market allows traders to speculate on silver prices through contracts requiring less capital but offering greater leverage. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) provide a third route, offering exposure to either physical silver, silver futures, or related equity positions.

Historical Context: How High Has Silver Gone?

The all-time peak for silver stands at US$49.95 per ounce, achieved on January 17, 1980. However, this record came courtesy of market manipulation rather than fundamental strength. Two wealthy traders known as the Hunt brothers attempted to corner the silver market by accumulating both physical metal and futures contracts. Their scheme collapsed spectacularly on March 27, 1980—infamously dubbed “Silver Thursday”—when they failed a margin call and prices cratered to US$10.80.

The next major milestone arrived in April 2011, when silver climbed to US$47.94 amid exceptional investment demand. Following that peak, the metal consolidated into a US$15–US$20 trading range for most of the subsequent decade. The COVID-19 pandemic reignited interest in 2020, pushing prices above US$26 and briefly testing US$30, though momentum faded.

Silver’s 2024 Performance: From Weakness to Historic Recovery

This year presented a tale of two halves. Silver began 2024 under pressure but found footing in March as expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts emerged. The metal broke through US$30 on May 17, then hit a 12-year peak of US$32.33 on May 20. Profit-taking pulled prices below US$27 in early August before the current rally commenced.

The latest leg higher, which carried the spot price of silver above US$34, reflects multiple converging factors. U.S. election uncertainty, escalating Middle East tensions, and widespread bets on monetary easing have driven safe-haven demand. Additionally, the global renewable energy transition is creating structural tailwinds. Silver is critical for solar panel manufacturing, positioning it to benefit from a projected 20 percent surge in solar sector demand throughout 2024.

Supply and Demand Dynamics Tightening

The silver market faces a fascinating supply-demand imbalance. Global production declined 1 percent to 830.5 million ounces in 2023, with Mexico, China, and Peru as the world’s leading sources. Lower ore grades and production suspensions—notably a four-month halt at a major Mexican mine due to labor action—constrained supply. Output is forecast to decline another 0.8 percent in 2024 to 823.5 million ounces.

On the demand side, industrial fabrication reached record levels, expected to grow 2 percent further in 2024 driven by solar expansion. However, investment demand for physical silver bars and coins is projected to contract 13 percent, creating an expected market deficit of 215.3 million ounces—the second-largest shortfall in more than 20 years.

Price Manipulation: A Persistent Concern

The spot price of silver has historically been subject to manipulation. In 2015, a U.S. investigation revealed that major banks—including UBS, HSBC, Bank of Nova Scotia, and Deutsche Bank—rigged silver rates between 2007 and 2013. JPMorgan has faced repeated allegations, ultimately paying US$920 million in 2020 to settle federal probes into precious metals market manipulation.

The 2014 replacement of London’s century-old Silver Fix with the LBMA Silver Price represented an attempt to increase transparency. Yet vigilant market observers continue monitoring for irregularities.

What Comes Next for Silver?

Whether today’s spot price of silver will sustain above the US$30 level remains the critical question. Market watchers note that fundamentals appear supportive—supply constraints combined with industrial and investment demand create potential for continued appreciation. Yet silver’s history of volatility and past episodes of manipulation suggest caution remains warranted for investors evaluating positions in this precious metal.