The Nuclear Energy Race Heats Up: NuScale vs. Oklo in the SMR Stock Showdown

The small modular reactor market is emerging as one of the most lucrative segments within the nuclear energy sector. Industry forecasts suggest this space will expand from $5.81 billion in 2024 to $8.37 billion by 2032, growing at a compound annual rate of approximately 4.98% through the decade. Two companies stand out as frontrunners positioning themselves to capture significant market share: NuScale Power (SMR) and Oklo (OKLO). While both are actively developing next-generation nuclear technologies, their strategic approaches and near-term prospects paint vastly different investment pictures.

Market Tailwinds: Why Small Modular Reactors Matter Now

The global demand for reliable, carbon-free baseload power continues climbing, driven primarily by the exponential energy requirements of artificial intelligence data centers, advanced manufacturing facilities, and national defense applications. Small modular reactor technology addresses this need directly—offering scalable, secure nuclear solutions without the massive capital expenditures of traditional reactors.

Both NuScale Power and Oklo are well-positioned to capitalize on this structural shift. However, their execution timelines and commercial readiness diverge significantly.

NuScale Power: Regulatory Advantage Meets Timeline Uncertainty

NuScale Power holds a critical distinction: it remains the sole small modular reactor vendor with U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission design approval, a regulatory moat that competitors struggle to replicate. This certification legitimizes the company’s technology and accelerates potential commercialization pathways.

The company has achieved several milestones reinforcing this position. Its recently approved 77-megawatt uprate enhances product flexibility for customers requiring greater power output. More importantly, the announced 6-gigawatt deployment program involving ENTRA1 and Tennessee Valley Authority represents the largest small modular reactor initiative in U.S. history—encompassing 72 modules across six facilities. NuScale Power has already secured commitments for 12 modules in the initial phase.

Government backing amplifies bullish signals. The U.S.-Japan framework agreement designated NuScale Power and ENTRA1 as the exclusive team for power development addressing AI infrastructure needs. Notably, ENTRA1 may receive up to $25 billion in funding to accelerate baseload energy projects—a concrete indicator of governmental commitment to nuclear expansion.

The Revenue Challenge

Despite impressive-sounding announcements, NuScale Power’s current financial reality remains sobering. Third-quarter 2025 revenues totaled merely $8.2 million, while the company paid ENTRA1 $128.5 million during the same period as part of a milestone agreement. Management guidance suggests total payments across all TVA projects could reach several billion dollars before equipment orders materialize.

Furthermore, the TVA agreement lacks binding Power Purchase Agreement status—a critical gap that could delay meaningful revenue recognition for years. Project execution timelines extend into 2030 before the first plant becomes operational, creating an extended wait for substantial financial contribution.

Oklo: Building Scalability Through Flexibility

Oklo has adopted a distinctly different playbook: establishing a repeatable, scalable operational model rather than pursuing singular megaprojects. The company’s Aurora reactor at Idaho National Laboratory serves as both a proof-of-concept and a template for future deployments.

A decisive strategic advantage involves Oklo’s utilization of the U.S. Department of Energy authorization pathway. This regulatory approach permits construction and operation under DOE oversight before NRC approval, effectively de-risking development timelines and reducing regulatory bottlenecks. Simultaneously, real operational data generated during this phase strengthens future NRC applications—creating a virtuous cycle of validation and approval.

Oklo’s diversified portfolio strengthens its competitive position. Beyond the Aurora reactor, the company operates the Pluto test reactor for fuel and component validation while supporting Atomic Alchemy’s isotope production reactor. This multi-program approach accelerates technological maturation and operational learning.

Supply chain integration represents another differentiator. Oklo is actively developing fuel fabrication and recycling infrastructure, including a planned advanced fuel center in Tennessee. This vertical integration reduces dependency on external fuel suppliers and creates additional revenue streams while supporting network expansion.

On the demand side, Oklo claims a customer pipeline exceeding 14 gigawatts—predominantly from data center operators seeking reliable power supplies. This customer enthusiasm contrasts sharply with NuScale Power’s earlier-stage commercial negotiations.

Comparing Financial Trajectories

Current earnings estimates reveal both companies remain unprofitable, yet with different severity profiles. Zacks Consensus projects NuScale Power will report a $1.64 per-share loss in 2025, a deterioration from $0.46 loss projections made 60 days prior. Oklo’s 2025 loss estimate stands at $0.61 per share—improved from earlier $0.64 projections made 30 days ago.

NuScale Power’s expanding losses suggest mounting near-term financial pressure, while Oklo’s stabilizing loss trajectory hints at improving operational efficiency.

Valuation: Unlocking Value Asymmetry

Stock performance metrics diverge dramatically. Over the past six months, NuScale Power shares declined 59.7%, while Oklo shares appreciated 24.7%—a 84.4 percentage-point divergence revealing market sentiment.

Trailing twelve-month price-to-book valuations further illuminate the disparity. NuScale Power trades at 10.8X, substantially exceeding Oklo’s 9.3X multiple. From a value-investing perspective, Oklo appears considerably more attractively priced, particularly given its superior near-term commercialization trajectory.

The Investment Verdict: Oklo Presents Superior Risk-Adjusted Returns

Both NuScale Power and Oklo operate within an undeniably favorable market environment driven by structural energy demand growth. However, investment merit diverges markedly.

NuScale Power possesses legitimate technological and regulatory advantages but faces considerable headwinds: minimal near-term revenues, substantial milestone payments before equipment orders, uncertain Power Purchase Agreement execution timelines, and extended commercialization horizons stretching to 2030. The current stock valuation fails to compensate investors for these risks.

Conversely, Oklo has engineered a scalable operational framework bypassing traditional regulatory constraints while simultaneously demonstrating early commercial momentum. Its reasonable valuation multiples, improving loss trajectory, and demonstrated customer appetite create a more compelling risk-reward proposition.

Oklo holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) designation, positioning it as the clear preference relative to NuScale Power’s Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) rating. For investors monitoring the small modular reactor sector and nuclear energy’s resurgence, Oklo offers the superior entry point at current valuations.