The Global Rare Earth Supply Race: Which Nations Hold the Keys?

The race for rare earth supremacy is heating up as the world shifts toward clean energy and advanced technology. With tight supply chains and growing demand, understanding where these critical materials come from has become crucial—and the geographical concentration is startling.

A Lopsided Global Picture

Out of 130 million metric tons of global rare earth reserves, just a handful of countries control the majority. This imbalance has created both opportunities and vulnerabilities in the international supply chain. In 2024 alone, global rare earth production hit 390,000 metric tons, up from 376,000 MT the previous year, reflecting accelerating demand across the EV and tech sectors.

China’s Stranglehold: 44 Million Metric Tons and Counting

China sits atop the rare earth mountain with 44 million metric tons in reserves—nearly a third of the world’s known deposits. More impressively, the nation pulled 270,000 MT from the ground in 2024, accounting for 69% of global production.

But Beijing isn’t resting on its laurels. After warning in 2012 that its reserves were depleting, the government pivoted strategically. It established commercial and national stockpiles, clamped down on illegal mining, and has been steadily raising production quotas in recent years. The strategy has worked: despite years of export controls and tech bans—like its December 2023 embargo on rare earth magnet technology exports to the US—China has further secured its dominance by importing heavy rare earths from Myanmar, where environmental oversight is minimal and extraction accelerates unchecked.

The Sleeping Giants Waking Up

Brazil’s 21 Million Metric Ton Wild Card

Brazil holds the second-largest rare earth reserves at 21 million MT, yet produced virtually nothing until recently. Serra Verde changed that calculus when it fired up Phase 1 production at its Pela Ema deposit in early 2024. By 2026, the operation expects to churn out 5,000 MT annually of four critical magnet rare earths: neodymium, praseodymium, terbium, and dysprosium. It’s the only non-Chinese operation capable of producing all four simultaneously—a potential game-changer.

India’s Untapped Advantage: 6.9 Million Metric Tons

India’s 6.9 million MT in reserves pair with an interesting geology: the nation hosts nearly 35% of the world’s beach and mineral sand deposits, prime rare earth sources. Production stands modest at 2,900 MT annually, but the government is moving aggressively. New policies are being drafted to spur R&D, and in October 2024, Trafalgar announced plans for India’s first integrated rare earth metals, alloy, and magnet facility—signaling intent to climb the value chain.

The Western Challengers

Australia Ascendent: 5.7 Million Metric Tons

Australia ranks fourth in reserves but has become the Western world’s most serious rare earth player. Lynas Rare Earths operates the Mount Weld mine and runs a refining facility in Malaysia, positioning itself as the world’s largest non-Chinese supplier. A Mount Weld expansion completes in 2025, while a new processing facility in Kalgoorlie began output in mid-2024. Hastings Technology Metals’ Yangibana mine is shovel-ready and signed an offtake agreement with Baotou Sky Rock, targeting first concentrate in Q4 2026.

The US Playing Catch-Up: 1.9 Million Metric Tons

Despite ranking second in 2024 production at 45,000 MT, the US holds only 1.9 million MT in reserves—seventh globally. All US mining happens at California’s Mountain Pass, operated by MP Materials. The Biden Administration earmarked $17.5 million in April 2024 for processing technologies targeting secondary coal feedstocks, a workaround strategy reflecting supply desperation.

Smaller Reserves, Bigger Ambitions

Russia’s Shrinking Holdings: 3.8 Million Metric Tons

Russia’s reserves dropped sharply from 10 million MT to 3.8 million MT year-over-year, and war with Ukraine has frozen domestic development plans. Output remained flat at 2,500 MT.

Vietnam’s Revised Downgrade: 3.5 Million Metric Tons

Vietnam’s story is murkier. Reserves were slashed from 22 million MT to 3.5 million MT in 2024 following arrests of six rare earths executives, including Vietnam Rare Earth’s chairman, for VAT fraud in October 2023. Production limped along at just 300 MT.

Greenland’s Frozen Potential: 1.5 Million Metric Tons

Greenland holds 1.5 million MT but produces nothing yet. The Tanbreez and Kvanefjeld projects are advancing—Critical Metals completed Stage 1 acquisition of Tanbreez in July 2024 and began drilling that September. Energy Transition Minerals’ Kvanefjeld faced setbacks after Greenland’s government rejected its uranium-inclusive plan, though the company awaits a court ruling on its revised proposal. With Trump’s return to the White House, Greenland’s strategic importance has surfaced, though local leaders insist the island isn’t for sale.

Why Separation Remains the Real Bottleneck

Finding rare earth deposits is one challenge; extracting and refining them is another. The mining itself—whether through open-pit or in-situ leaching—mirrors conventional operations. The separation process, however, is brutal: solvent extraction requires hundreds to thousands of cycles to achieve high purity, and costs spiral accordingly. This technical barrier protects incumbent producers and explains why so many reserve-rich nations lag in production.

Environmental Scars That Run Deep

Rare earth mining leaves deep wounds. Since ores often contain radioactive thorium and uranium, waste handling is hazardous. Unregulated operations routinely contaminate groundwater and streams. In Southern China and Northern Myanmar, 2,700 illegal leaching pools were identified by mid-2022 across an area the size of Singapore. Over 100 landslides have devastated China’s Ganzhou region alone, while Myanmar’s mountains bear similar scars from accelerating Chinese outsourcing.

The Path Forward

The rare earth landscape is fragmenting. China remains dominant but faces rising competition from emerging miners in Brazil, India, and Australia. Processing bottlenecks, environmental costs, and geopolitical tensions ensure that the race for supply security will intensify. The question isn’t whether new producers will emerge—it’s whether they can build integrated operations capable of challenging Beijing’s grip on the full value chain.