2026 Economic Data and Policy Trends at the Start of the Year Quick Overview

Signs of Domestic Economic Recovery

The latest data released by the statistical department shows that the CPI for 2025 remains flat compared to the previous year, but the 0.8% year-on-year increase in December’s CPI and the continued expansion of the growth rate are worth noting. Meanwhile, the stock market performed remarkably—Shanghai Composite Index once again surpassed 4100 points after ten years, recording 16 consecutive days of gains, with total market turnover exceeding 3 trillion yuan, indicating a clear warming of market sentiment.

On the other hand, the banking wealth management market is experiencing new changes. Some banks’ short-term large-denomination deposit rates have entered the “0” range, similar to regular fixed-term deposits. Industry insiders believe this downward trend may continue, gradually reducing the attractiveness of deposits.

Frequent Policy Adjustments

As January begins, policy adjustments are ongoing. The Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Finance jointly announced that the scope of the employee medical insurance personal account pooling has expanded from within provinces to nationwide. This reform will benefit a broad group of insured individuals.

The State Administration of Radio and Television issued a statement on content ecology, calling for a crackdown on the “adultization” trend in children’s micro-dramas, strictly prohibiting portrayals of “bossy CEO” and other adult roles by children, to protect minors’ healthy growth. Additionally, the authorities announced an investigation into the “involution” competition in the food delivery industry, with platforms like Meituan, Taobao Flash Sale, and JD.com Food Delivery expressing their willingness to cooperate.

Regulatory departments also clarified their stance on social hot-button issues—rejecting the idea of viewing bride price as a disposable “investment,” providing a clear legal direction for cases involving bride price disputes.

Starting April 1, the export VAT rebate for products such as photovoltaics will be canceled, which will have certain impacts on related industries.

Ongoing Complex International Situation

The United Nations report forecasts a global economic growth rate of 2.7% in 2026, lower than 2.8% in 2025, with a consensus gradually forming around the slowdown of the global economy. The issue of the United States owing money to the UN has also come to light; relevant departments state that the US owes the UN over 3 billion USD, and continued “arrears” could result in the loss of voting rights in the General Assembly.

In terms of geopolitics, the Trump administration has been active. The US claims to have canceled the second wave of sanctions against Venezuela, while oil companies announced plans to invest at least 100 billion USD; Venezuela’s interim president responded that they will not submit to the US and remain loyal to Maduro. Trump again threatened Iran over unrest incidents, stating that if more personnel are killed, the US will take severe action against Iran. Iran accused the US and Israel of orchestrating unrest in Iran.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, with Russian forces claiming to have used “Zircon” missiles and other large-scale strikes on key Ukrainian facilities in retaliation for the attack on Putin’s residence. Tensions in Eastern Europe remain high with little sign of easing.

【Daily Quote】In the arena of life, there’s no need to focus too much on gains and losses in the short term; what matters most is how we will continue to grow in the future.