【2026 US Dollar System Shift: Policy Divergence Sparks Global Capital Reallocation】
The market has experienced a wave of intense volatility right at the start of the year. The issue of Federal Reserve independence has resurfaced, triggering a chain reaction in global asset allocation.
The data is clear: gold has broken through $4,600 to hit a record high, the US dollar index has fallen to the 98 level (the largest decline in seven years), and US stock index futures are under pressure. Meanwhile, overseas central banks like Japan are adjusting their US bond holdings, selling around $20 billion within a week. What does this reflect?
The underlying logic is straightforward—when central bank policy space is squeezed, and expectations of forced rate cuts rise, the market begins to reassess the attractiveness of dollar assets. Compared to the dollar appreciation cycle over the past decade, the current shift appears particularly rapid.
The most authentic reactions come from large institutions: BlackRock is reducing its US bond holdings, JPMorgan is calling for further downside in the dollar and US bonds, and international rating agencies are beginning to question the sustainability of US exceptionalism. Historically, similar turning points are often accompanied by long-term inflation pressures—the story of the 1970s serves as a warning.
Currently, US economic data is not as resilient as expected. In this context of forced easing, the risks are significant. Global capital is seeking new value anchors—gold, certain highly liquid assets, and the cryptocurrency market are attracting increased attention.
Three questions worth pondering: How long will the dollar depreciation cycle last? How much room is there for gold’s safe-haven premium? How is the role of cryptocurrencies evolving amid major asset rotations?
What is your judgment? When policy environments change, how will assets like $SUI $DOGE $PEPE perform? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
6 Likes
Reward
6
6
Repost
Share
Comment
0/400
MidnightMEVeater
· 7h ago
Good morning, the real wake-up time is at 2 a.m. When the $20 billion sell-off of US bonds happened, I knew the sandwich attack was about to begin. The bots had already set up their formations in the dark pools.
Wait, non-farm payrolls missed expectations and now there's talk of rate cuts? This logic... so familiar, just like last year's gas war eve, when big players pretended not to see the price shocks. The liquidity trap in the financial sector, standard routine.
Dollar depreciation cycle, gold premiums, crypto rotation... Brother, you asked these three questions well, but I'm more concerned about—who's eating whom in this game. The moment big institutions start reducing their US bond holdings, they're digging a pit for retail investors. The issue isn't asset selection now, but whether you have a sense of time cost.
SUI DOGE PEPE? Honestly, these assets tend to be the last to be eaten when policies change drastically. History never repeats but it always rhymes. The inflation story of the 1970s isn't over yet.
View OriginalReply0
BearMarketSurvivor
· 7h ago
Is the US dollar depreciating? Then what are we waiting for, it's long overdue to invest in gold and cryptocurrencies. DOGE is really running fast this wave.
---
What did the 70s warn us about? Now the policy playbook is completely different. The Federal Reserve's independence is long gone.
---
SUI has been quite active recently. Compared to US bonds, it's definitely more attractive. Funds are looking for an exit.
---
Haha, BlackRock has already left, retail investors are still debating when it will fall. That's the difference.
---
The central bank sold $20 billion in US bonds in a week. That's a significant scale, but its impact on the crypto market is hard to predict.
---
Instead of waiting for the dollar to fully depreciate, why not allocate some PEPE now? Anyway, the dollar can't go anywhere.
---
Good question, but the truly wealthy institutions have already acted. We're just following the trend.
---
Gold has reached 4600, still chasing it? I actually prefer crypto, it's more imaginative. Who knows?
---
US stock index futures are under pressure, but the crypto market is hot. Capital moves on quickly to new favorites, it's very realistic.
---
Forcing loose policies is risky? Then just hedge it. SUI and DOGE with some safety net.
View OriginalReply0
HallucinationGrower
· 7h ago
The Fed's recent actions... are really digging their own grave for the dollar. No wonder gold is soaring, and capital is fleeing.
If $DOGE$PEPE can also benefit from this wave of gains, the key is who will be the first to run out. That's just the market—fast fish eat slow fish.
Regarding the $200 billion US Treasury sell-off, it feels like 2026 is really going to change, doesn't it?
When BlackRock and Morgan turn around, what are retail investors still hesitating about... always a step behind.
I believe gold will break 4600, but can $SUI keep up? That depends on liquidity; otherwise, it's just an artificial high.
View OriginalReply0
SeasonedInvestor
· 7h ago
The US dollar is done; now it's just a matter of how long gold and cryptocurrencies can hold up. It feels like Bitcoin is about to take off.
View OriginalReply0
TradFiRefugee
· 7h ago
The recent decline of the US dollar is really starting to become unsustainable. I saw gold break through 4600 long ago. The question is, can this trend continue? It seems like institutions are betting on the Federal Reserve compromising, but I think it might not be that simple.
Economic data was already poor, and now they insist on cutting interest rates. What if inflation rises again then? The 70s approach is too terrifying; history really might repeat itself.
Things like DOGE are just chips at this point. During capital rotations, everyone wants a piece.
Gold still depends on the situation, but in crypto... honestly, I find it hard to see through. The trend is too fast.
Wait, $20 billion in US bonds sold in a week? Japan is also dumping? Is this really starting to reverse?
I just want to know, when the dollar truly enters a bear market, will these high-liquidity assets be directly dumped by institutions? That feels like the real risk.
View OriginalReply0
governance_lurker
· 7h ago
The US dollar plummeted, gold hit a new high... This is the result of excessive liquidity, and it's been obvious for a while. Weak non-farm payroll data is also normal; it's all just virtual numbers. To be honest, SUI DOGE is much safer than US Treasuries.
#美国非农就业数据未达市场预期 $SUI $DOGE $PEPE
【2026 US Dollar System Shift: Policy Divergence Sparks Global Capital Reallocation】
The market has experienced a wave of intense volatility right at the start of the year. The issue of Federal Reserve independence has resurfaced, triggering a chain reaction in global asset allocation.
The data is clear: gold has broken through $4,600 to hit a record high, the US dollar index has fallen to the 98 level (the largest decline in seven years), and US stock index futures are under pressure. Meanwhile, overseas central banks like Japan are adjusting their US bond holdings, selling around $20 billion within a week. What does this reflect?
The underlying logic is straightforward—when central bank policy space is squeezed, and expectations of forced rate cuts rise, the market begins to reassess the attractiveness of dollar assets. Compared to the dollar appreciation cycle over the past decade, the current shift appears particularly rapid.
The most authentic reactions come from large institutions: BlackRock is reducing its US bond holdings, JPMorgan is calling for further downside in the dollar and US bonds, and international rating agencies are beginning to question the sustainability of US exceptionalism. Historically, similar turning points are often accompanied by long-term inflation pressures—the story of the 1970s serves as a warning.
Currently, US economic data is not as resilient as expected. In this context of forced easing, the risks are significant. Global capital is seeking new value anchors—gold, certain highly liquid assets, and the cryptocurrency market are attracting increased attention.
Three questions worth pondering: How long will the dollar depreciation cycle last? How much room is there for gold’s safe-haven premium? How is the role of cryptocurrencies evolving amid major asset rotations?
What is your judgment? When policy environments change, how will assets like $SUI $DOGE $PEPE perform? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.