#美国贸易赤字状况 $SUI $DOGE $PEPE

[2026 Global Capital Flows Take a Major Turn: How the Dollar Credit Crisis Could Spark a Crypto Safe-Haven Wave]

Dear all, a major event has just erupted at the start of the new year.

The power struggle among top US political leaders is profoundly reshaping the global financial landscape. Recently, the Federal Reserve’s independence has faced unprecedented challenges—pressure to influence policy decisions is becoming evident. This is not just a power struggle; it’s a critical game surrounding the credibility of the dollar.

**The market’s immediate reaction is already clear:**

Gold has broken through the $4,600 mark to hit a record high. This number itself speaks volumes—global investors are voting with real money, and what are they voting for? They are expressing doubt about the stability of the dollar.

The US Dollar Index has fallen to 98, marking the largest weekly decline in nearly seven years. Meanwhile, Japan sold $20 billion worth of US Treasuries in a week, reflecting a rapid shift of international capital. US stock index futures weakened, with Nasdaq futures approaching a 1% decline, as markets digest this wave of policy uncertainty.

**Why is this happening? What is the deeper logic?**

On the surface, it appears to be political bickering over Fed maintenance, but in reality, it reflects direct pressure on interest rate policies. The Trump administration has not only exerted pressure through judicial and public opinion channels but also promoted policy tools bypassing traditional central bank mechanisms—such as directly intervening in mortgage rates and forcibly lowering credit card interest rates. The underlying logic is clear: stimulate short-term economic performance, but at the cost of weakening the central bank’s independent decision-making space.

History offers reference points. In the 1970s, Nixon’s government also intervened in Fed policy-making, resulting in a decade of stagflation for the US economy. Currently, the US economic fundamentals are not particularly strong, and forcing rate cuts amid weak data carries obvious risks.

**What do major institutions think now?**

BlackRock is reducing its US Treasury holdings. Recently, Lagarde made a straightforward statement—“American exceptionalism is dead.” JPMorgan explicitly said that the dollar and US Treasuries will continue to depreciate. These institutions represent some of the smartest money globally, and their moves reflect what? A reassessment of the dollar’s long-term creditworthiness.

The European Central Bank also issued warnings: the White House’s policy mix is gradually eroding the foundation of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. When the Fed’s independence is compromised, investor confidence in dollar policy stability begins to waver.

**What does this mean for the crypto market?**

Global capital is seeking alternative stores of value outside the dollar. Gold is surging, and safe-haven assets like Bitcoin are attracting institutional attention. For holders of assets like $SUI, $DOGE, and $PEPE, this macro backdrop cannot be ignored—when traditional financial order shows cracks, the appeal of alternative assets rises.

This does not mean cryptocurrencies will directly replace the dollar, but rather that global investment portfolios are being reconfigured. As safe-haven demand increases, it will push up the valuations of gold and certain digital assets.

**Three core questions:**

1. Can political pressure truly change the Fed’s policy direction? It depends on how long central bank independence can be maintained.
2. Will the dollar hegemony be shaken this time? It’s already happening; the question is how deep the shakeout will be.
3. How long can safe-haven assets keep rising? As long as uncertainty persists, safe-haven demand will continue.

The current question is: will you continue holding dollar exposure, or start allocating to safe-haven assets? This shift in global capital flows is not just an economic issue but a process of re-pricing.