#比特币价格走势 After analyzing Ali's on-chain data, the logic behind this wave of market movement is quite clear: short-term rebound probability exists, but the underlying support is very fragile. The key indicator is the capital flow—net capital flow has turned negative to -$4.5 billion, and ETF net outflows over the past two weeks amount to $1 billion, which is no small matter.

My copy-trading strategy has been adjusted in recent days. When encountering a rebound, I prefer to follow only those aggressive traders with strict stop-loss settings, reducing position size to within 30% of total funds. The reason is simple: any current rise could be a false prosperity built on leverage. If capital continues to flow out, such rebounds can turn downward at any moment, and chasing high positions turns into a "harvest machine" for the "chives."

For friends with moderate risk appetite, instead of following short-term rebounds during this period, it’s better to focus on those who are positioning for long-term bottoms with steady hands. They may have modest short-term gains, but their drawdowns are manageable, and only by surviving can they wait for real opportunities. Living longer in a bear market is more valuable than living faster. Until the capital situation fundamentally improves, I maintain a "wait-and-see" attitude toward any upward movement.