2026-01-13 00:20:33

The crude oil market has been quite lively recently. On one side, the tense Middle East geopolitical situation and OPEC+坚持减产 to support prices; on the other side, US crude oil production hits new highs, and the International Energy Agency still predicts a supply surplus for the year. Both bulls and bears are now unable to dominate each other, resulting in crude oil being stuck in a wide range of 56.0-59.5, bouncing back and forth.

From a technical perspective, the daily Bollinger Bands have already flattened, indicating that the market is digesting these conflicting signals. On the 4-hour chart, geopolitical sentiment and supply surplus concerns are at odds, causing a short-term rebound but lacking momentum. The key level is $57.5; holding above it could give a chance to push up to $58.0-58.5, while breaking below it may test the lows at $56.0-56.5.

From a trading standpoint, going long around the 56.5-57.0 range is more reasonable, with a stop-loss below 56.0 and a target of 58.0-58.5. For short positions, consider entering at resistance levels of 59.0-59.5, with a stop-loss moved up to 60.0 and a target retracement to 57.5-57.0. If it breaks above 59.5, then follow the trend to go long towards 60.0; if it breaks below 56.0, then reverse and add to short positions down to 56.5.

Overall, the market moves too fast, and the risks are significant. It’s essential to strictly control stop-losses on each trade to avoid blowing up the account after one or two losses.

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LayerHopper

· 01-15 22:14

It's another deadlock situation. Middle Eastern troublemakers and the US are both ramping up. Neither side can afford to lose. This round of crude oil really needs to be cautious; one move could blow the account. Breaking through the 57.5 level makes a world of difference. Stay alert.

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TestnetScholar

· 01-15 03:05

I'm watching the 57.5 level closely. Be cautious at key points. Bollinger Bands moving sideways indicate no clear direction, making it easy to get crushed at this time. Both sides want to win, but neither can succeed. Crude oil's temper is really quite capricious. Stop-losses must be set properly, or it will really be over. After such a long stalemate between bulls and bears, it feels like we're just waiting for a black swan event to break the deadlock.

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SelfSovereignSteve

· 01-14 10:52

Bollinger Bands flattening means waiting for the right moment; whoever moves first will be exposed. The Middle East situation can't push oil prices up; this time it's really a bit stuck. If you can't get below 56 yuan, you should consider chasing long; you need to have enough gambling spirit. Last year around this time, I went all-in directly, almost wiped out my account, so now I only try small positions. The 57.5 level is really crucial; I'm watching it closely. Speaking of which, the fact that US production hit a new high is really a bit strange; it feels like the story isn't finished. Stop-losses must be strict; this market doesn't play by the usual rules.

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blockBoy

· 01-13 00:50

Another deadlock situation, so annoying --- I've been watching the 57.5 level for a while, just see if it can hold steady --- Stop talking, last time I didn't set my stop-loss properly and almost lost everything --- Whenever there's a disturbance in the Middle East, oil prices twitch, it's a problem --- When the Bollinger Bands are flat, it's waiting for the wind to turn, and that's when you're most likely to get cut --- I don't care who wins between bulls and bears, I just want to make some steady profit --- The oversupply issue has been known for a long time, and now they're just confronting each other here

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zkNoob

· 01-13 00:50

Breaking or not breaking this line at 57.5 is really crucial; now it's a matter of who blinks first.

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RugpullAlertOfficer

· 01-13 00:50

Damn, it's the same old trick again. Both bulls and bears can make money, but I end up losing anyway.

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HashRateHermit

· 01-13 00:48

The moment Bollinger Bands went flat, I knew something was going to happen. This deadlock where neither side is willing to make concessions is the most torturous. I didn't hold the 57.5 level; I directly admitted defeat. I don't want to gamble on this geopolitical + fundamental confrontation. The new high for the US dollar is really stressful. It feels very difficult to have sustained upward momentum. Honestly, I choose to lie flat in this wave of market movement. Stop-loss is more important than prediction. Things are getting lively again in the Middle East, but with US production standing there, no one can dominate entirely.

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VCsSuckMyLiquidity

· 01-13 00:37

Repeatedly dropping from 56 to 59.5, I'm tired of it. Without some patience in this market, I really can't play it.

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MonkeySeeMonkeyDo

· 01-13 00:37

57.5 this hurdle really stuck hard, feels like no one can break through --- It's both volatile and a false breakout again, my stop-loss orders are almost calloused from all the hits --- Relying on OPEC's production cuts to support the price, while the US is still ramping up production crazily, it feels like a face-off between the two --- Bollinger Bands going flat just means I'm waiting, right? Annoying --- Trying to enter at 56.5, I’ve tested this setup before, but in the end, it just shook me out. Damn --- Who hasn't experienced a few losses that blew up their account? Just tuition fees --- Geopolitical sentiment causes a rebound, then nothing follows. I hate this kind of market the most --- Waiting in short positions at 59.0-59.5, if there's another fake breakout, I'll just close and roll out --- This wave of crude oil trading is really tough, wide-range volatility is just draining traders' patience --- 58.0 is probably a trap for a long squeeze, I’m increasingly doubting the technicals

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PumpDetector

· 01-13 00:34

ngl this range-bound mess screams accumulation phase... smart money just waiting for the real move tbh 🍿

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