Recently, a viewpoint from JPMorgan has sparked quite a bit of discussion in the market—they changed their stance, saying that the Federal Reserve might not cut interest rates in 2026, and could even raise rates by 25 basis points in Q3 of 2027. This shift happened quite suddenly; let’s take a closer look at what’s really going on.

**Is JPMorgan reliable this time?**

To be honest, as a top-tier investment bank, JPMorgan’s forecasts do carry some weight. However, this time their prediction style is particularly hawkish, which differs significantly from the current mainstream market expectations. More importantly, they themselves recently (December 2025) said that there would only be one rate cut in 2026, but in less than a month, they changed to "no cut, but a hike," which is a pretty rapid turnaround.

Even within the Federal Reserve, there are notable disagreements about the policy path for 2026, indicating that future interest rate movements are highly uncertain. No institution can see the future clearly; JPMorgan’s forecast is just one of many possibilities. Whether this prediction will come true mainly depends on the US inflation data and economic performance in 2026. If the economy continues to overheat and inflation remains stubborn, the probability of rate hikes will increase. From today’s perspective, this seems more like a "tail risk" to watch rather than the most likely scenario.

**What impact might this have on the crypto market?**

If a rate hike cycle actually begins, it could have a significant impact on the crypto market. First, Fed rate hikes usually lead to a stronger dollar, which can suppress allocations to high-risk assets. Second, higher interest rates increase overall financing costs, putting pressure on on-chain projects and trading strategies that rely on borrowing. Additionally, market risk appetite tends to decline, and investors might shift funds from cryptocurrencies to safer assets.

But that doesn’t mean the crypto space is doomed. Historical experience shows that market expectations about policy often influence markets more than the actual policy changes. Once rate hike expectations are fully priced in, the actual hikes may be absorbed relatively smoothly by the market. The key is to closely monitor US economic data, especially inflation trends and employment figures, as these are the core basis for Fed decisions.