Will the Fed chair step down this year? Market pricing is showing interesting signals here. Current derivatives and rate expectations are pricing in roughly a 59% probability of leadership changes by end of May, which has serious implications for liquidity conditions across markets including crypto. Beyond that timeline, there's a compelling case that when Powell's current term concludes in Q2 2026, structural shifts could accelerate the transition. These policy uncertainties typically trigger significant volatility in risk assets—crypto markets included—as traders re-price their expectations around monetary conditions and the Federal Reserve's inflation-fighting stance.